Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Hawaii's 1st Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean (PVI D+14) and incumbent Rep. Ed Case's commanding fundraising advantage over primary challengers State Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and State Rep. Della Au Belatti, as reported in early February. Case, a fiscally conservative Democrat serving since 2019, announced his reelection bid last summer amid intra-party tensions but maintains strong incumbency advantages in this urban Oahu stronghold, where no competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primary. While historical base rates show safe seats rarely flip without national waves, potential shifts could arise from a high-profile GOP recruit, Case's primary defeat to a weaker nominee, late scandal, or health issues before the November general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,167 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$2,120 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Hawaii's 1st Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean (PVI D+14) and incumbent Rep. Ed Case's commanding fundraising advantage over primary challengers State Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and State Rep. Della Au Belatti, as reported in early February. Case, a fiscally conservative Democrat serving since 2019, announced his reelection bid last summer amid intra-party tensions but maintains strong incumbency advantages in this urban Oahu stronghold, where no competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primary. While historical base rates show safe seats rarely flip without national waves, potential shifts could arise from a high-profile GOP recruit, Case's primary defeat to a weaker nominee, late scandal, or health issues before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,287วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Hawaii's 1st Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean (PVI D+14) and incumbent Rep. Ed Case's commanding fundraising advantage over primary challengers State Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and State Rep. Della Au Belatti, as reported in early February. Case, a fiscally conservative Democrat serving since 2019, announced his reelection bid last summer amid intra-party tensions but maintains strong incumbency advantages in this urban Oahu stronghold, where no competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primary. While historical base rates show safe seats rarely flip without national waves, potential shifts could arise from a high-profile GOP recruit, Case's primary defeat to a weaker nominee, late scandal, or health issues before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,287วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Hawaii's 1st Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean (PVI D+14) and incumbent Rep. Ed Case's commanding fundraising advantage over primary challengers State Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and State Rep. Della Au Belatti, as reported in early February. Case, a fiscally conservative Democrat serving since 2019, announced his reelection bid last summer amid intra-party tensions but maintains strong incumbency advantages in this urban Oahu stronghold, where no competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primary. While historical base rates show safe seats rarely flip without national waves, potential shifts could arise from a high-profile GOP recruit, Case's primary defeat to a weaker nominee, late scandal, or health issues before the November general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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