Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive challenger Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent. The Honolulu-centered district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for Case in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the 2024 result in which Case won by more than 40 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health issue, or unexpected national political shift could still affect turnout or voter preferences before ballots close.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$35,559 ปริมาณ
$35,559 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$35,559 ปริมาณ
$35,559 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,153 ปริมาณ
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$20,405 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive challenger Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent. The Honolulu-centered district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for Case in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the 2024 result in which Case won by more than 40 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health issue, or unexpected national political shift could still affect turnout or voter preferences before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,559วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive challenger Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent. The Honolulu-centered district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for Case in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the 2024 result in which Case won by more than 40 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health issue, or unexpected national political shift could still affect turnout or voter preferences before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,559วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive challenger Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent. The Honolulu-centered district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for Case in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the 2024 result in which Case won by more than 40 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health issue, or unexpected national political shift could still affect turnout or voter preferences before ballots close.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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