NY-12’s heavily Democratic composition in Manhattan, where the party has routinely posted 80%+ margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97.5%. The open seat created by longtime Representative Jerrold Nadler’s retirement drew a crowded primary field; Micah Lasher prevailed in June 2026 and now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising disparities. No major developments since the primary have altered this positioning. Late shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee, sharply depressed Democratic turnout, or a sustained national environment strongly favoring Republicans.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 ปริมาณ
$32,897 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$32,897 ปริมาณ
$32,897 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,262 ปริมาณ
98%
Republican Party
$15,635 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12’s heavily Democratic composition in Manhattan, where the party has routinely posted 80%+ margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97.5%. The open seat created by longtime Representative Jerrold Nadler’s retirement drew a crowded primary field; Micah Lasher prevailed in June 2026 and now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising disparities. No major developments since the primary have altered this positioning. Late shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee, sharply depressed Democratic turnout, or a sustained national environment strongly favoring Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,897วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12’s heavily Democratic composition in Manhattan, where the party has routinely posted 80%+ margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97.5%. The open seat created by longtime Representative Jerrold Nadler’s retirement drew a crowded primary field; Micah Lasher prevailed in June 2026 and now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising disparities. No major developments since the primary have altered this positioning. Late shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee, sharply depressed Democratic turnout, or a sustained national environment strongly favoring Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,897วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...NY-12’s heavily Democratic composition in Manhattan, where the party has routinely posted 80%+ margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97.5%. The open seat created by longtime Representative Jerrold Nadler’s retirement drew a crowded primary field; Micah Lasher prevailed in June 2026 and now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising disparities. No major developments since the primary have altered this positioning. Late shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee, sharply depressed Democratic turnout, or a sustained national environment strongly favoring Republicans.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย