The open-seat status of New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, following incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas’s decision to run for Senate, shapes trader sentiment in the race. The district carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index and supported Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in 2024, providing Democrats a structural edge despite the lack of incumbency. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Maggie Goodlander, have filed for the September 8, 2026 primary, while the Republican primary field remains more fragmented. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Likely Democratic, and forecasts project a Democratic margin near double digits. These fundamentals underpin the 86.3% implied probability for the Democratic nominee over the Republican, with limited late-cycle developments altering the positioning ahead of the November general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNH-01 House Election Winner
NH-01 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,733 Обс.
86%
Republican Party
$3,047 Обс.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat status of New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, following incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas’s decision to run for Senate, shapes trader sentiment in the race. The district carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index and supported Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in 2024, providing Democrats a structural edge despite the lack of incumbency. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Maggie Goodlander, have filed for the September 8, 2026 primary, while the Republican primary field remains more fragmented. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Likely Democratic, and forecasts project a Democratic margin near double digits. These fundamentals underpin the 86.3% implied probability for the Democratic nominee over the Republican, with limited late-cycle developments altering the positioning ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$8,781Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat status of New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, following incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas’s decision to run for Senate, shapes trader sentiment in the race. The district carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index and supported Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in 2024, providing Democrats a structural edge despite the lack of incumbency. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Maggie Goodlander, have filed for the September 8, 2026 primary, while the Republican primary field remains more fragmented. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Likely Democratic, and forecasts project a Democratic margin near double digits. These fundamentals underpin the 86.3% implied probability for the Democratic nominee over the Republican, with limited late-cycle developments altering the positioning ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$8,781Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open-seat status of New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, following incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas’s decision to run for Senate, shapes trader sentiment in the race. The district carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index and supported Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in 2024, providing Democrats a structural edge despite the lack of incumbency. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Maggie Goodlander, have filed for the September 8, 2026 primary, while the Republican primary field remains more fragmented. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Likely Democratic, and forecasts project a Democratic margin near double digits. These fundamentals underpin the 86.3% implied probability for the Democratic nominee over the Republican, with limited late-cycle developments altering the positioning ahead of the November general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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