Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election general on August 18, driven by the district's deep blue partisan lean—Harris +36 in 2024 and a Cook PVI of D+22—where Democrats consistently secure large margins in the Bay Area suburbs of Alameda County. Incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation on April 13 amid a House Ethics Committee probe into sexual misconduct allegations created the vacancy, but the open seat reinforces the structural Democratic advantage amid low expected Republican turnout in an off-cycle August contest. With candidate filing closing April 23 ahead of the June 16 top-two primary, no strong GOP challengers have emerged; an upset would require a major Democratic split allowing a Republican into the general or unforeseen nominee scandal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$24,894 KL.
$24,894 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$24,894 KL.
$24,894 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,851 KL.
92%
Republican Party
$17,044 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election general on August 18, driven by the district's deep blue partisan lean—Harris +36 in 2024 and a Cook PVI of D+22—where Democrats consistently secure large margins in the Bay Area suburbs of Alameda County. Incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation on April 13 amid a House Ethics Committee probe into sexual misconduct allegations created the vacancy, but the open seat reinforces the structural Democratic advantage amid low expected Republican turnout in an off-cycle August contest. With candidate filing closing April 23 ahead of the June 16 top-two primary, no strong GOP challengers have emerged; an upset would require a major Democratic split allowing a Republican into the general or unforeseen nominee scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$24,894Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election general on August 18, driven by the district's deep blue partisan lean—Harris +36 in 2024 and a Cook PVI of D+22—where Democrats consistently secure large margins in the Bay Area suburbs of Alameda County. Incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation on April 13 amid a House Ethics Committee probe into sexual misconduct allegations created the vacancy, but the open seat reinforces the structural Democratic advantage amid low expected Republican turnout in an off-cycle August contest. With candidate filing closing April 23 ahead of the June 16 top-two primary, no strong GOP challengers have emerged; an upset would require a major Democratic split allowing a Republican into the general or unforeseen nominee scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$24,894Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election general on August 18, driven by the district's deep blue partisan lean—Harris +36 in 2024 and a Cook PVI of D+22—where Democrats consistently secure large margins in the Bay Area suburbs of Alameda County. Incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation on April 13 amid a House Ethics Committee probe into sexual misconduct allegations created the vacancy, but the open seat reinforces the structural Democratic advantage amid low expected Republican turnout in an off-cycle August contest. With candidate filing closing April 23 ahead of the June 16 top-two primary, no strong GOP challengers have emerged; an upset would require a major Democratic split allowing a Republican into the general or unforeseen nominee scandal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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