Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 41.5% probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 24°C or higher on April 19, driven by recent Korea Meteorological Administration short- and medium-range forecasts projecting a sharp warm-up to 27–29°C amid high-pressure ridging over East Asia. This follows cooler conditions earlier in the week, with April 15 highs near 13°C, as a southward shift in steering winds brings warmer continental air. However, uncertainty persists due to model ensemble spread—GFS and ECMWF diverge on cloud cover and possible northerly gusts—keeping 23°C (19.5%) and 22°C (16.5%) viable amid historical April averages of 18°C. Watch KMA updates tomorrow for refined 48-hour guidance ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月19日首爾最高溫度?
4月19日首爾最高溫度?
24°C或以上 45%
23°C 20%
22°C 16%
21°C 11%
$23,343 交易量
$23,343 交易量
14°C或以下
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
6%
21°C
11%
22°C
16%
23°C
20%
24°C或以上
45%
24°C或以上 45%
23°C 20%
22°C 16%
21°C 11%
$23,343 交易量
$23,343 交易量
14°C或以下
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
6%
21°C
11%
22°C
16%
23°C
20%
24°C或以上
45%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 41.5% probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 24°C or higher on April 19, driven by recent Korea Meteorological Administration short- and medium-range forecasts projecting a sharp warm-up to 27–29°C amid high-pressure ridging over East Asia. This follows cooler conditions earlier in the week, with April 15 highs near 13°C, as a southward shift in steering winds brings warmer continental air. However, uncertainty persists due to model ensemble spread—GFS and ECMWF diverge on cloud cover and possible northerly gusts—keeping 23°C (19.5%) and 22°C (16.5%) viable amid historical April averages of 18°C. Watch KMA updates tomorrow for refined 48-hour guidance ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions