Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport on April 6, with implied probabilities clustered around 27–29°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs spanning this range. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and light rain prospects, which could suppress peak solar insolation and limit highs to 27°C under overcast skies or allow 29°C with partial clearing; recent rainy conditions over April 3–5 have heightened convective activity amid the spring transition to warmer subtropical highs averaging 26–28°C historically. Watch for updated China Meteorological Administration bulletins and new model runs by midday April 5, as observed trends in humidity and wind shear will refine land-based temperature trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 6?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 6?
27°C 26%
28°C 26%
29°C 25%
30°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
21°C or below
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
5%
26°C
7%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
25%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
3%
27°C 26%
28°C 26%
29°C 25%
30°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
21°C or below
$478 交易量
1%
22°C
$276 交易量
<1%
23°C
$375 交易量
1%
24°C
$118 交易量
2%
25°C
$348 交易量
5%
26°C
$226 交易量
7%
27°C
$176 交易量
26%
28°C
$312 交易量
26%
29°C
$135 交易量
25%
30°C
$337 交易量
12%
31°C or higher
$216 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport on April 6, with implied probabilities clustered around 27–29°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs spanning this range. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and light rain prospects, which could suppress peak solar insolation and limit highs to 27°C under overcast skies or allow 29°C with partial clearing; recent rainy conditions over April 3–5 have heightened convective activity amid the spring transition to warmer subtropical highs averaging 26–28°C historically. Watch for updated China Meteorological Administration bulletins and new model runs by midday April 5, as observed trends in humidity and wind shear will refine land-based temperature trajectories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 2, 2026, 6:18 AM ET
交易量
$2,997结束日期
2026-04-06市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:18 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport on April 6, with implied probabilities clustered around 27–29°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs spanning this range. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and light rain prospects, which could suppress peak solar insolation and limit highs to 27°C under overcast skies or allow 29°C with partial clearing; recent rainy conditions over April 3–5 have heightened convective activity amid the spring transition to warmer subtropical highs averaging 26–28°C historically. Watch for updated China Meteorological Administration bulletins and new model runs by midday April 5, as observed trends in humidity and wind shear will refine land-based temperature trajectories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$2,997结束日期
2026-04-06市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:18 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport on April 6, with implied probabilities clustered around 27–29°C due to divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs spanning this range. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and light rain prospects, which could suppress peak solar insolation and limit highs to 27°C under overcast skies or allow 29°C with partial clearing; recent rainy conditions over April 3–5 have heightened convective activity amid the spring transition to warmer subtropical highs averaging 26–28°C historically. Watch for updated China Meteorological Administration bulletins and new model runs by midday April 5, as observed trends in humidity and wind shear will refine land-based temperature trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题