Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Tokyo on April 2, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport station, where verified measurements confirm this peak amid persistent cloud cover and frequent scattered showers from a nearby low-pressure system. These conditions suppressed daytime solar insolation, keeping highs below the early April climatological normal of 17.8°C despite initial model runs suggesting up to 18°C. Evening readings now cooling to around 11°C solidify the outcome, with resolution imminent; only an improbable late data revision or measurement anomaly could challenge it, as forecast models show no further warming potential.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 2?
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$231,223 交易量
$231,223 交易量
2026-04-02
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$231,223 交易量
$231,223 交易量
2026-04-02
9°C or below
$8,106 交易量
No
10°C
$5,817 交易量
No
11°C
$6,319 交易量
No
12°C
$24,138 交易量
No
13°C
$24,026 交易量
No
14°C
$22,227 交易量
No
15°C
$29,461 交易量
No
16°C
$26,931 交易量
Yes
17°C
$29,976 交易量
No
18°C
$27,769 交易量
No
19°C or higher
$26,455 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Tokyo on April 2, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport station, where verified measurements confirm this peak amid persistent cloud cover and frequent scattered showers from a nearby low-pressure system. These conditions suppressed daytime solar insolation, keeping highs below the early April climatological normal of 17.8°C despite initial model runs suggesting up to 18°C. Evening readings now cooling to around 11°C solidify the outcome, with resolution imminent; only an improbable late data revision or measurement anomaly could challenge it, as forecast models show no further warming potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$231,223结束日期
2026-04-02市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Tokyo on April 2, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport station, where verified measurements confirm this peak amid persistent cloud cover and frequent scattered showers from a nearby low-pressure system. These conditions suppressed daytime solar insolation, keeping highs below the early April climatological normal of 17.8°C despite initial model runs suggesting up to 18°C. Evening readings now cooling to around 11°C solidify the outcome, with resolution imminent; only an improbable late data revision or measurement anomaly could challenge it, as forecast models show no further warming potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$231,223结束日期
2026-04-02市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Tokyo on April 2, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport station, where verified measurements confirm this peak amid persistent cloud cover and frequent scattered showers from a nearby low-pressure system. These conditions suppressed daytime solar insolation, keeping highs below the early April climatological normal of 17.8°C despite initial model runs suggesting up to 18°C. Evening readings now cooling to around 11°C solidify the outcome, with resolution imminent; only an improbable late data revision or measurement anomaly could challenge it, as forecast models show no further warming potential.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题