The Republican nominee Steve Toth holds an 86% implied probability in the TX-02 House race due to the district's established Republican tilt across northern and northeastern Houston suburbs. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Shaun Finnie. The seat's voting history, including strong Republican performance in recent cycles, combined with its Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts, underpins trader consensus. No major shifts in polling or campaign dynamics have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning ahead of the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,377 交易量
$10,377 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
86%
民主党
12%
$10,377 交易量
$10,377 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$4,593 交易量
86%
民主党
$5,784 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee Steve Toth holds an 86% implied probability in the TX-02 House race due to the district's established Republican tilt across northern and northeastern Houston suburbs. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Shaun Finnie. The seat's voting history, including strong Republican performance in recent cycles, combined with its Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts, underpins trader consensus. No major shifts in polling or campaign dynamics have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$10,377结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee Steve Toth holds an 86% implied probability in the TX-02 House race due to the district's established Republican tilt across northern and northeastern Houston suburbs. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Shaun Finnie. The seat's voting history, including strong Republican performance in recent cycles, combined with its Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts, underpins trader consensus. No major shifts in polling or campaign dynamics have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,377结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee Steve Toth holds an 86% implied probability in the TX-02 House race due to the district's established Republican tilt across northern and northeastern Houston suburbs. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Shaun Finnie. The seat's voting history, including strong Republican performance in recent cycles, combined with its Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts, underpins trader consensus. No major shifts in polling or campaign dynamics have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning ahead of the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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