Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino holds a strong position in New York’s 2nd congressional district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, consistent with the district’s R+6 partisan lean. Garbarino secured 59.8% in the prior cycle and advanced unopposed through the June 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Patrick Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive, also faced no primary contest. The combination of incumbency, fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million cash on hand for the Republican, and limited Democratic recruitment in this Suffolk County-based seat has shaped trader consensus around an 86% Republican win probability for the November 3 general election. No recent events have altered the structural dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,675 交易量
$17,675 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
87%
民主党
14%
$17,675 交易量
$17,675 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$7,134 交易量
87%
民主党
$10,541 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino holds a strong position in New York’s 2nd congressional district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, consistent with the district’s R+6 partisan lean. Garbarino secured 59.8% in the prior cycle and advanced unopposed through the June 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Patrick Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive, also faced no primary contest. The combination of incumbency, fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million cash on hand for the Republican, and limited Democratic recruitment in this Suffolk County-based seat has shaped trader consensus around an 86% Republican win probability for the November 3 general election. No recent events have altered the structural dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
交易量
$17,675结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino holds a strong position in New York’s 2nd congressional district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, consistent with the district’s R+6 partisan lean. Garbarino secured 59.8% in the prior cycle and advanced unopposed through the June 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Patrick Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive, also faced no primary contest. The combination of incumbency, fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million cash on hand for the Republican, and limited Democratic recruitment in this Suffolk County-based seat has shaped trader consensus around an 86% Republican win probability for the November 3 general election. No recent events have altered the structural dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,675结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETIncumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino holds a strong position in New York’s 2nd congressional district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, consistent with the district’s R+6 partisan lean. Garbarino secured 59.8% in the prior cycle and advanced unopposed through the June 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Patrick Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive, also faced no primary contest. The combination of incumbency, fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million cash on hand for the Republican, and limited Democratic recruitment in this Suffolk County-based seat has shaped trader consensus around an 86% Republican win probability for the November 3 general election. No recent events have altered the structural dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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