Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's commanding position in solidly Democratic NM-01, rated Solid D by Cook Political Report, underpins trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for a Democratic House win on November 3, 2026. The district's partisan lean, evidenced by Stansbury's double-digit margins in 2022 and 2024, combined with incumbency advantages on local energy and water issues, sustains this dominance amid quiet recent developments—no major polling, scandals, or shifts in the past 30 days. With June 2 primaries imminent to set nominees, an upset would require a high-profile Republican recruit, national midterm wave favoring GOP gains, or late-breaking Democratic vulnerabilities like legal issues or health events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,409 交易量
$23,409 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
$23,409 交易量
$23,409 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$12,930 交易量
92%
共和党
$10,479 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's commanding position in solidly Democratic NM-01, rated Solid D by Cook Political Report, underpins trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for a Democratic House win on November 3, 2026. The district's partisan lean, evidenced by Stansbury's double-digit margins in 2022 and 2024, combined with incumbency advantages on local energy and water issues, sustains this dominance amid quiet recent developments—no major polling, scandals, or shifts in the past 30 days. With June 2 primaries imminent to set nominees, an upset would require a high-profile Republican recruit, national midterm wave favoring GOP gains, or late-breaking Democratic vulnerabilities like legal issues or health events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$23,409结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's commanding position in solidly Democratic NM-01, rated Solid D by Cook Political Report, underpins trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for a Democratic House win on November 3, 2026. The district's partisan lean, evidenced by Stansbury's double-digit margins in 2022 and 2024, combined with incumbency advantages on local energy and water issues, sustains this dominance amid quiet recent developments—no major polling, scandals, or shifts in the past 30 days. With June 2 primaries imminent to set nominees, an upset would require a high-profile Republican recruit, national midterm wave favoring GOP gains, or late-breaking Democratic vulnerabilities like legal issues or health events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,409结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's commanding position in solidly Democratic NM-01, rated Solid D by Cook Political Report, underpins trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for a Democratic House win on November 3, 2026. The district's partisan lean, evidenced by Stansbury's double-digit margins in 2022 and 2024, combined with incumbency advantages on local energy and water issues, sustains this dominance amid quiet recent developments—no major polling, scandals, or shifts in the past 30 days. With June 2 primaries imminent to set nominees, an upset would require a high-profile Republican recruit, national midterm wave favoring GOP gains, or late-breaking Democratic vulnerabilities like legal issues or health events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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