Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in the competitive New Mexico 2nd District, rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by major forecasters with an even Cook Partisan Voter Index. A late-April NRCC internal survey showed Vasquez and Republican Greg Cunningham statistically tied at 43-41 percent among likely voters, reflecting the seat's swing character after Vasquez's narrow 2024 reelection. Cunningham, backed by a Trump endorsement and national Republican support, benefits from the district's independent voters and recent generic ballot parity, though Vasquez maintains a substantial fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus assigns Democrats the higher implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election due to incumbency and historical patterns in this battleground.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,522 交易量
$17,522 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
55%
共和党
21%
$17,522 交易量
$17,522 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$1,496 交易量
55%
共和党
$16,027 交易量
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in the competitive New Mexico 2nd District, rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by major forecasters with an even Cook Partisan Voter Index. A late-April NRCC internal survey showed Vasquez and Republican Greg Cunningham statistically tied at 43-41 percent among likely voters, reflecting the seat's swing character after Vasquez's narrow 2024 reelection. Cunningham, backed by a Trump endorsement and national Republican support, benefits from the district's independent voters and recent generic ballot parity, though Vasquez maintains a substantial fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus assigns Democrats the higher implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election due to incumbency and historical patterns in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$17,522结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in the competitive New Mexico 2nd District, rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by major forecasters with an even Cook Partisan Voter Index. A late-April NRCC internal survey showed Vasquez and Republican Greg Cunningham statistically tied at 43-41 percent among likely voters, reflecting the seat's swing character after Vasquez's narrow 2024 reelection. Cunningham, backed by a Trump endorsement and national Republican support, benefits from the district's independent voters and recent generic ballot parity, though Vasquez maintains a substantial fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus assigns Democrats the higher implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election due to incumbency and historical patterns in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,522结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in the competitive New Mexico 2nd District, rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by major forecasters with an even Cook Partisan Voter Index. A late-April NRCC internal survey showed Vasquez and Republican Greg Cunningham statistically tied at 43-41 percent among likely voters, reflecting the seat's swing character after Vasquez's narrow 2024 reelection. Cunningham, backed by a Trump endorsement and national Republican support, benefits from the district's independent voters and recent generic ballot parity, though Vasquez maintains a substantial fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus assigns Democrats the higher implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election due to incumbency and historical patterns in this battleground.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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