Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, a Philadelphia-area seat long rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Boyle’s multi-term incumbency, established fundraising, and the district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability. Republican nominee Jessica Arriaga, who advanced through the May primary, faces structural headwinds with limited name recognition and resources in a heavily urban constituency. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national partisan shift, significant candidate health or ethics issues, or unusually high Republican turnout, though historical base rates and current positioning make such outcomes improbable before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,620 交易量
$35,620 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
2%
$35,620 交易量
$35,620 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$6,352 交易量
95%
共和党
$29,268 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, a Philadelphia-area seat long rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Boyle’s multi-term incumbency, established fundraising, and the district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability. Republican nominee Jessica Arriaga, who advanced through the May primary, faces structural headwinds with limited name recognition and resources in a heavily urban constituency. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national partisan shift, significant candidate health or ethics issues, or unusually high Republican turnout, though historical base rates and current positioning make such outcomes improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$35,620结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, a Philadelphia-area seat long rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Boyle’s multi-term incumbency, established fundraising, and the district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability. Republican nominee Jessica Arriaga, who advanced through the May primary, faces structural headwinds with limited name recognition and resources in a heavily urban constituency. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national partisan shift, significant candidate health or ethics issues, or unusually high Republican turnout, though historical base rates and current positioning make such outcomes improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,620结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 2nd congressional district, a Philadelphia-area seat long rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Boyle’s multi-term incumbency, established fundraising, and the district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability. Republican nominee Jessica Arriaga, who advanced through the May primary, faces structural headwinds with limited name recognition and resources in a heavily urban constituency. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national partisan shift, significant candidate health or ethics issues, or unusually high Republican turnout, though historical base rates and current positioning make such outcomes improbable before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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