Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 74°F or higher in Houston on April 12 (97.9% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus projecting daytime highs of 77–83°F under a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence, light winds, and ample sunshine for strong diurnal heating. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with a record 86°F high at Houston Hobby Airport earlier this week amid warm, humid southerly flow and minimal precipitation disruptions. Mid-April climatology supports averages near 80°F, bolstering confidence. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective clouds from nearby showers reducing insolation or a subtle coastal front, though current model runs show low likelihood ahead of evening forecast updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on April 12?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 12?
74°F or higher 97.9%
55°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$24,488 Vol.
$24,488 Vol.
12 abr 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
98%
74°F or higher 97.9%
55°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$24,488 Vol.
$24,488 Vol.
12 abr 2026
55°F or below
$7,573 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$2,102 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$1,765 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,363 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,236 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,298 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$2,392 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,034 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,420 Vol.
<1%
74°F or higher
$3,188 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 74°F or higher in Houston on April 12 (97.9% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus projecting daytime highs of 77–83°F under a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence, light winds, and ample sunshine for strong diurnal heating. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with a record 86°F high at Houston Hobby Airport earlier this week amid warm, humid southerly flow and minimal precipitation disruptions. Mid-April climatology supports averages near 80°F, bolstering confidence. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective clouds from nearby showers reducing insolation or a subtle coastal front, though current model runs show low likelihood ahead of evening forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
Volumen
$24,488Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 74°F or higher in Houston on April 12 (97.9% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus projecting daytime highs of 77–83°F under a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence, light winds, and ample sunshine for strong diurnal heating. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with a record 86°F high at Houston Hobby Airport earlier this week amid warm, humid southerly flow and minimal precipitation disruptions. Mid-April climatology supports averages near 80°F, bolstering confidence. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective clouds from nearby showers reducing insolation or a subtle coastal front, though current model runs show low likelihood ahead of evening forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$24,488Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 74°F or higher in Houston on April 12 (97.9% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus projecting daytime highs of 77–83°F under a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence, light winds, and ample sunshine for strong diurnal heating. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with a record 86°F high at Houston Hobby Airport earlier this week amid warm, humid southerly flow and minimal precipitation disruptions. Mid-April climatology supports averages near 80°F, bolstering confidence. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective clouds from nearby showers reducing insolation or a subtle coastal front, though current model runs show low likelihood ahead of evening forecast updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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