Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Tokyo on April 2, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport station, where verified measurements confirm this peak amid persistent cloud cover and frequent scattered showers from a nearby low-pressure system. These conditions suppressed daytime solar insolation, keeping highs below the early April climatological normal of 17.8°C despite initial model runs suggesting up to 18°C. Evening readings now cooling to around 11°C solidify the outcome, with resolution imminent; only an improbable late data revision or measurement anomaly could challenge it, as forecast models show no further warming potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 2?
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$231,223 Vol.
$231,223 Vol.
2 abr 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$231,223 Vol.
$231,223 Vol.
2 abr 2026
9°C or below
$8,106 Vol.
No
10°C
$5,817 Vol.
No
11°C
$6,319 Vol.
No
12°C
$24,138 Vol.
No
13°C
$24,026 Vol.
No
14°C
$22,227 Vol.
No
15°C
$29,461 Vol.
No
16°C
$26,931 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$29,976 Vol.
No
18°C
$27,769 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$26,455 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Tokyo on April 2, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport station, where verified measurements confirm this peak amid persistent cloud cover and frequent scattered showers from a nearby low-pressure system. These conditions suppressed daytime solar insolation, keeping highs below the early April climatological normal of 17.8°C despite initial model runs suggesting up to 18°C. Evening readings now cooling to around 11°C solidify the outcome, with resolution imminent; only an improbable late data revision or measurement anomaly could challenge it, as forecast models show no further warming potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ET
Volumen
$231,223Fecha de finalización
2 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Tokyo on April 2, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport station, where verified measurements confirm this peak amid persistent cloud cover and frequent scattered showers from a nearby low-pressure system. These conditions suppressed daytime solar insolation, keeping highs below the early April climatological normal of 17.8°C despite initial model runs suggesting up to 18°C. Evening readings now cooling to around 11°C solidify the outcome, with resolution imminent; only an improbable late data revision or measurement anomaly could challenge it, as forecast models show no further warming potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$231,223Fecha de finalización
2 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Tokyo on April 2, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations at Tokyo Haneda Airport station, where verified measurements confirm this peak amid persistent cloud cover and frequent scattered showers from a nearby low-pressure system. These conditions suppressed daytime solar insolation, keeping highs below the early April climatological normal of 17.8°C despite initial model runs suggesting up to 18°C. Evening readings now cooling to around 11°C solidify the outcome, with resolution imminent; only an improbable late data revision or measurement anomaly could challenge it, as forecast models show no further warming potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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