Recent forecast models from agencies tracking the Indian monsoon show persistent cloud cover and scattered thundery showers expected over Lucknow on August 16, which limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near 30–32 °C. High humidity and rainfall reduce the diurnal temperature range, consistent with climatological norms for mid-August in Uttar Pradesh. Model spread arises mainly from uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of any low-pressure system or monsoon surge, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31 °C (37.5 %) and 32 °C (32.5 %). Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on August 16?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 16?
31°C 38%
32°C 32%
33°C 23%
30°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
9%
30°C
16%
31°C
38%
32°C
32%
33°C
20%
34°C
5%
35°C
7%
36°C
4%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 38%
32°C 32%
33°C 23%
30°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$186 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$23 Vol.
4%
29°C
$37 Vol.
9%
30°C
$3 Vol.
16%
31°C
$0 Vol.
38%
32°C
$0 Vol.
32%
33°C
$13 Vol.
20%
34°C
$1 Vol.
5%
35°C
$5 Vol.
7%
36°C
$5 Vol.
4%
37°C or higher
$66 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies tracking the Indian monsoon show persistent cloud cover and scattered thundery showers expected over Lucknow on August 16, which limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near 30–32 °C. High humidity and rainfall reduce the diurnal temperature range, consistent with climatological norms for mid-August in Uttar Pradesh. Model spread arises mainly from uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of any low-pressure system or monsoon surge, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31 °C (37.5 %) and 32 °C (32.5 %). Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$339End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies tracking the Indian monsoon show persistent cloud cover and scattered thundery showers expected over Lucknow on August 16, which limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near 30–32 °C. High humidity and rainfall reduce the diurnal temperature range, consistent with climatological norms for mid-August in Uttar Pradesh. Model spread arises mainly from uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of any low-pressure system or monsoon surge, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31 °C (37.5 %) and 32 °C (32.5 %). Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$339End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies tracking the Indian monsoon show persistent cloud cover and scattered thundery showers expected over Lucknow on August 16, which limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near 30–32 °C. High humidity and rainfall reduce the diurnal temperature range, consistent with climatological norms for mid-August in Uttar Pradesh. Model spread arises mainly from uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of any low-pressure system or monsoon surge, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31 °C (37.5 %) and 32 °C (32.5 %). Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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