Active southwest monsoon conditions over northern India, featuring widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered thundershowers, are moderating daytime heating in Lucknow and anchoring trader consensus near 33–34 °C for August 15. Easterly flow and frequent rain chances of 60–80% reduce solar insolation, keeping maxima well below the August climatological average of ~32–33 °C (converted from ~90 °F). Model differences in storm timing and intensity create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, while higher readings require clearer skies and lower moisture that current guidance does not support. Updated India Meteorological Department forecasts and next model runs will refine the peak temperature ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 15?
33°C 36%
34°C 36%
35°C 15%
32°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
9%
33°C
36%
34°C
36%
35°C
15%
36°C
4%
37°C
3%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 36%
34°C 36%
35°C 15%
32°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
28°C or below
$717 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$903 Vol.
1%
30°C
$104 Vol.
1%
31°C
$173 Vol.
2%
32°C
$447 Vol.
9%
33°C
$1,037 Vol.
36%
34°C
$1,791 Vol.
36%
35°C
$795 Vol.
15%
36°C
$312 Vol.
4%
37°C
$111 Vol.
3%
38°C or higher
$247 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Active southwest monsoon conditions over northern India, featuring widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered thundershowers, are moderating daytime heating in Lucknow and anchoring trader consensus near 33–34 °C for August 15. Easterly flow and frequent rain chances of 60–80% reduce solar insolation, keeping maxima well below the August climatological average of ~32–33 °C (converted from ~90 °F). Model differences in storm timing and intensity create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, while higher readings require clearer skies and lower moisture that current guidance does not support. Updated India Meteorological Department forecasts and next model runs will refine the peak temperature ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,637End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Active southwest monsoon conditions over northern India, featuring widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered thundershowers, are moderating daytime heating in Lucknow and anchoring trader consensus near 33–34 °C for August 15. Easterly flow and frequent rain chances of 60–80% reduce solar insolation, keeping maxima well below the August climatological average of ~32–33 °C (converted from ~90 °F). Model differences in storm timing and intensity create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, while higher readings require clearer skies and lower moisture that current guidance does not support. Updated India Meteorological Department forecasts and next model runs will refine the peak temperature ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,637End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Active southwest monsoon conditions over northern India, featuring widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered thundershowers, are moderating daytime heating in Lucknow and anchoring trader consensus near 33–34 °C for August 15. Easterly flow and frequent rain chances of 60–80% reduce solar insolation, keeping maxima well below the August climatological average of ~32–33 °C (converted from ~90 °F). Model differences in storm timing and intensity create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, while higher readings require clearer skies and lower moisture that current guidance does not support. Updated India Meteorological Department forecasts and next model runs will refine the peak temperature ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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