Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mid-70s high temperature in Austin on April 4 at over 75% combined implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Austin/San Antonio forecasts showing persistent cloud cover, southeast winds, and scattered showers capping diurnal heating under humid Gulf moisture inflow. This follows record-warm March 2026 averages of 70.8°F, but a cooler pattern with recent overcast conditions and highs near 70°F on April 2-3. Key variables include afternoon cloud breaks allowing boundary layer warming toward 76-77°F, or reinforced moisture keeping peaks at 72-73°F; model ensembles like GFS and HRRR show divergence beyond ±3°F. New observational data and 18Z forecast updates today could refine odds, with climatological April 4 average of 77°F providing baseline context amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on April 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
74-75°F 36%
76-77°F 23%
72-73°F 20%
78-79°F 10%
$15,587 Vol.
$15,587 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
71°F or below
6%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
36%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 36%
76-77°F 23%
72-73°F 20%
78-79°F 10%
$15,587 Vol.
$15,587 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
71°F or below
$455 Vol.
6%
72-73°F
$708 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$1,020 Vol.
36%
76-77°F
$958 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$617 Vol.
10%
80-81°F
$550 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$1,019 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$2,662 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$2,980 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$2,209 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$2,503 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mid-70s high temperature in Austin on April 4 at over 75% combined implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Austin/San Antonio forecasts showing persistent cloud cover, southeast winds, and scattered showers capping diurnal heating under humid Gulf moisture inflow. This follows record-warm March 2026 averages of 70.8°F, but a cooler pattern with recent overcast conditions and highs near 70°F on April 2-3. Key variables include afternoon cloud breaks allowing boundary layer warming toward 76-77°F, or reinforced moisture keeping peaks at 72-73°F; model ensembles like GFS and HRRR show divergence beyond ±3°F. New observational data and 18Z forecast updates today could refine odds, with climatological April 4 average of 77°F providing baseline context amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$15,587Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mid-70s high temperature in Austin on April 4 at over 75% combined implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Austin/San Antonio forecasts showing persistent cloud cover, southeast winds, and scattered showers capping diurnal heating under humid Gulf moisture inflow. This follows record-warm March 2026 averages of 70.8°F, but a cooler pattern with recent overcast conditions and highs near 70°F on April 2-3. Key variables include afternoon cloud breaks allowing boundary layer warming toward 76-77°F, or reinforced moisture keeping peaks at 72-73°F; model ensembles like GFS and HRRR show divergence beyond ±3°F. New observational data and 18Z forecast updates today could refine odds, with climatological April 4 average of 77°F providing baseline context amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,587Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mid-70s high temperature in Austin on April 4 at over 75% combined implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Austin/San Antonio forecasts showing persistent cloud cover, southeast winds, and scattered showers capping diurnal heating under humid Gulf moisture inflow. This follows record-warm March 2026 averages of 70.8°F, but a cooler pattern with recent overcast conditions and highs near 70°F on April 2-3. Key variables include afternoon cloud breaks allowing boundary layer warming toward 76-77°F, or reinforced moisture keeping peaks at 72-73°F; model ensembles like GFS and HRRR show divergence beyond ±3°F. New observational data and 18Z forecast updates today could refine odds, with climatological April 4 average of 77°F providing baseline context amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes