Tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 14–16°C stems from Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) model output statistics and ECMWF ensembles forecasting Munich's highest temperature today at approximately 15°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate northerly winds. Morning observations at Munich-Flughafen station show 8–10°C under persistent low stratus clouds from a fading frontal boundary, limiting early heating, while potential afternoon breaks in cloud cover could enable insolation-driven peaks to 16°C or higher via boundary-layer mixing. Divergent short-range model runs on cloud evolution and exact airmass advection create genuine uncertainty differentiating outcomes; traders await hourly DWD updates and airport readings through mid-afternoon peak heating window.