Recent heat surges at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport, with peaks near 30–31°C over the past 48 hours, have driven trader consensus toward 29°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 32%, closely trailed by 28°C (25%) and 30°C (21%). Numerical weather prediction models like GFS and ECMWF ensemble means cluster highs around 28–30°C for April 4, reflecting persistent high-pressure systems fostering above-normal autumn temperatures amid the season's typical 25–27°C averages. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloudiness or isolated showers from INMET alerts, which could cap peaks at 28°C, versus sunnier scenarios enabling 30°C; new model runs expected overnight may refine this uncertainty before resolution based on official airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
29°C 32%
28°C 25%
30°C 21%
27°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 avr. 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
25%
29°C
32%
30°C
21%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 32%
28°C 25%
30°C 21%
27°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 avr. 2026
25°C or below
$941 Vol.
1%
26°C
$842 Vol.
4%
27°C
$944 Vol.
13%
28°C
$915 Vol.
25%
29°C
$976 Vol.
32%
30°C
$747 Vol.
21%
31°C
$796 Vol.
4%
32°C
$1,338 Vol.
1%
33°C
$885 Vol.
1%
34°C
$534 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent heat surges at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport, with peaks near 30–31°C over the past 48 hours, have driven trader consensus toward 29°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 32%, closely trailed by 28°C (25%) and 30°C (21%). Numerical weather prediction models like GFS and ECMWF ensemble means cluster highs around 28–30°C for April 4, reflecting persistent high-pressure systems fostering above-normal autumn temperatures amid the season's typical 25–27°C averages. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloudiness or isolated showers from INMET alerts, which could cap peaks at 28°C, versus sunnier scenarios enabling 30°C; new model runs expected overnight may refine this uncertainty before resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$9,680Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent heat surges at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport, with peaks near 30–31°C over the past 48 hours, have driven trader consensus toward 29°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 32%, closely trailed by 28°C (25%) and 30°C (21%). Numerical weather prediction models like GFS and ECMWF ensemble means cluster highs around 28–30°C for April 4, reflecting persistent high-pressure systems fostering above-normal autumn temperatures amid the season's typical 25–27°C averages. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloudiness or isolated showers from INMET alerts, which could cap peaks at 28°C, versus sunnier scenarios enabling 30°C; new model runs expected overnight may refine this uncertainty before resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,680Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent heat surges at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport, with peaks near 30–31°C over the past 48 hours, have driven trader consensus toward 29°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 32%, closely trailed by 28°C (25%) and 30°C (21%). Numerical weather prediction models like GFS and ECMWF ensemble means cluster highs around 28–30°C for April 4, reflecting persistent high-pressure systems fostering above-normal autumn temperatures amid the season's typical 25–27°C averages. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloudiness or isolated showers from INMET alerts, which could cap peaks at 28°C, versus sunnier scenarios enabling 30°C; new model runs expected overnight may refine this uncertainty before resolution based on official airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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