Trader consensus on Polymarket implies about 8-9 global magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for April 13-19, with >9 leading at 40%, aligning closely with USGS long-term seismic catalogs showing a historical average of roughly 8 such events per week worldwide. This baseline reflects steady tectonic strain accumulation and release along active plate boundaries, following the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. As of April 16, USGS data logs three qualifying quakes: M5.5 near Pagan in the Northern Mariana Islands on April 13, M5.5 off Tonga later that day, and M5.5 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14—consistent with expected pace despite Poisson-distributed variability. No unusual swarms or aftershock sequences elevate risks; real-time USGS feeds will track the remaining days amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 5,5 ou plus du 13 avril au 19 avril ?
Combien de tremblements de terre de 5,5 ou plus du 13 avril au 19 avril ?
>9 41%
9 21%
8 19%
7 13%
$108,485 Vol.
$108,485 Vol.
19 avr. 2026
≤3
1%
4
1%
5
7%
6
8%
7
13%
8
19%
9
21%
>9
41%
>9 41%
9 21%
8 19%
7 13%
$108,485 Vol.
$108,485 Vol.
19 avr. 2026
≤3
$71,086 Vol.
1%
4
$6,752 Vol.
1%
5
$2,815 Vol.
7%
6
$1,302 Vol.
8%
7
$1,894 Vol.
13%
8
$2,654 Vol.
19%
9
$1,639 Vol.
21%
>9
$20,343 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies about 8-9 global magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for April 13-19, with >9 leading at 40%, aligning closely with USGS long-term seismic catalogs showing a historical average of roughly 8 such events per week worldwide. This baseline reflects steady tectonic strain accumulation and release along active plate boundaries, following the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. As of April 16, USGS data logs three qualifying quakes: M5.5 near Pagan in the Northern Mariana Islands on April 13, M5.5 off Tonga later that day, and M5.5 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14—consistent with expected pace despite Poisson-distributed variability. No unusual swarms or aftershock sequences elevate risks; real-time USGS feeds will track the remaining days amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$108,485Date de fin
19 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies about 8-9 global magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for April 13-19, with >9 leading at 40%, aligning closely with USGS long-term seismic catalogs showing a historical average of roughly 8 such events per week worldwide. This baseline reflects steady tectonic strain accumulation and release along active plate boundaries, following the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. As of April 16, USGS data logs three qualifying quakes: M5.5 near Pagan in the Northern Mariana Islands on April 13, M5.5 off Tonga later that day, and M5.5 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14—consistent with expected pace despite Poisson-distributed variability. No unusual swarms or aftershock sequences elevate risks; real-time USGS feeds will track the remaining days amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$108,485Date de fin
19 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies about 8-9 global magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for April 13-19, with >9 leading at 40%, aligning closely with USGS long-term seismic catalogs showing a historical average of roughly 8 such events per week worldwide. This baseline reflects steady tectonic strain accumulation and release along active plate boundaries, following the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. As of April 16, USGS data logs three qualifying quakes: M5.5 near Pagan in the Northern Mariana Islands on April 13, M5.5 off Tonga later that day, and M5.5 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14—consistent with expected pace despite Poisson-distributed variability. No unusual swarms or aftershock sequences elevate risks; real-time USGS feeds will track the remaining days amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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