Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by March eurozone inflation surging to 2.6%—its highest since mid-2024—fueled by oil price shocks from Iran tensions. The ECB held key rates steady at its March 19 Governing Council meeting, with the deposit facility at 2%, but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling persistent pressures above the 2% target. Major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have shifted forecasts to mid-year hikes of 25-50 basis points, prompting markets to price around three increases by year-end despite policymakers downplaying an April 30 move absent stronger second-round effects.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में ECB की दरों में बढ़ोतरी?
2026 में ECB की दरों में बढ़ोतरी?
हाँ
$94,153 वॉल्यूम
$94,153 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$94,153 वॉल्यूम
$94,153 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by March eurozone inflation surging to 2.6%—its highest since mid-2024—fueled by oil price shocks from Iran tensions. The ECB held key rates steady at its March 19 Governing Council meeting, with the deposit facility at 2%, but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling persistent pressures above the 2% target. Major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have shifted forecasts to mid-year hikes of 25-50 basis points, prompting markets to price around three increases by year-end despite policymakers downplaying an April 30 move absent stronger second-round effects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$94,153समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by March eurozone inflation surging to 2.6%—its highest since mid-2024—fueled by oil price shocks from Iran tensions. The ECB held key rates steady at its March 19 Governing Council meeting, with the deposit facility at 2%, but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling persistent pressures above the 2% target. Major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have shifted forecasts to mid-year hikes of 25-50 basis points, prompting markets to price around three increases by year-end despite policymakers downplaying an April 30 move absent stronger second-round effects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$94,153समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by March eurozone inflation surging to 2.6%—its highest since mid-2024—fueled by oil price shocks from Iran tensions. The ECB held key rates steady at its March 19 Governing Council meeting, with the deposit facility at 2%, but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling persistent pressures above the 2% target. Major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have shifted forecasts to mid-year hikes of 25-50 basis points, prompting markets to price around three increases by year-end despite policymakers downplaying an April 30 move absent stronger second-round effects.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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