Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through April 13, 2026, indicate global near-surface air temperatures running at approximately 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, aligning with trader consensus pricing that outcome at 43% implied probability on Polymarket. This positioning reflects March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48°C (Copernicus), bolstered by near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March at 20.97°C over 60°S–60°N) and the ongoing transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions (NOAA advisory, April 9), which reduces cooling influences. While persistent anthropogenic forcing and high baseline ocean heat sustain elevated anomalies, the absence of an El Niño spike tempers higher bins; remaining April observations and early May bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA will refine resolution amid model-forecast uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Aprile 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
1,20–1,24ºC 27%
1,10–1,14ºC 13%
1,25–1,29ºC 8%
$120,911 Vol.
$120,911 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
5%
1,10–1,14ºC
13%
1,15–1,19ºC
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
27%
1,25–1,29ºC
8%
>1,29ºC
7%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
1,20–1,24ºC 27%
1,10–1,14ºC 13%
1,25–1,29ºC 8%
$120,911 Vol.
$120,911 Vol.
10 mag 2026
<1,10ºC
$28,387 Vol.
5%
1,10–1,14ºC
$23,018 Vol.
13%
1,15–1,19ºC
$13,890 Vol.
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
$15,823 Vol.
27%
1,25–1,29ºC
$27,729 Vol.
8%
>1,29ºC
$12,065 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through April 13, 2026, indicate global near-surface air temperatures running at approximately 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, aligning with trader consensus pricing that outcome at 43% implied probability on Polymarket. This positioning reflects March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48°C (Copernicus), bolstered by near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March at 20.97°C over 60°S–60°N) and the ongoing transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions (NOAA advisory, April 9), which reduces cooling influences. While persistent anthropogenic forcing and high baseline ocean heat sustain elevated anomalies, the absence of an El Niño spike tempers higher bins; remaining April observations and early May bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA will refine resolution amid model-forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$120,911Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through April 13, 2026, indicate global near-surface air temperatures running at approximately 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, aligning with trader consensus pricing that outcome at 43% implied probability on Polymarket. This positioning reflects March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48°C (Copernicus), bolstered by near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March at 20.97°C over 60°S–60°N) and the ongoing transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions (NOAA advisory, April 9), which reduces cooling influences. While persistent anthropogenic forcing and high baseline ocean heat sustain elevated anomalies, the absence of an El Niño spike tempers higher bins; remaining April observations and early May bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA will refine resolution amid model-forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$120,911Data di fine
10 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through April 13, 2026, indicate global near-surface air temperatures running at approximately 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, aligning with trader consensus pricing that outcome at 43% implied probability on Polymarket. This positioning reflects March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48°C (Copernicus), bolstered by near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March at 20.97°C over 60°S–60°N) and the ongoing transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions (NOAA advisory, April 9), which reduces cooling influences. While persistent anthropogenic forcing and high baseline ocean heat sustain elevated anomalies, the absence of an El Niño spike tempers higher bins; remaining April observations and early May bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA will refine resolution amid model-forecast uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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