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Clima E Scienza·Weather

Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?

Market icon
Clima E Scienza·Weather

Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?

giu 30

dic 31

giu 30

dic 31

14–16 28%

11–13 27%

17–19 22%

20+ 14.4%

Polymarket

$1,232,529 Vol.

14–16 28%

11–13 27%

17–19 22%

20+ 14.4%

Polymarket

$1,232,529 Vol.

<5

$200,798 Vol.

<1%

5–7

$67,358 Vol.

1%

8–10

$123,947 Vol.

6%

11–13

$403,899 Vol.

27%

14–16

$176,930 Vol.

28%

17–19

$202,106 Vol.

22%

20+

$57,490 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a year-to-date pace of four USGS-confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026—Malaysia (Feb 22), Tonga (Mar 24), Vanuatu (Mar 30), and Indonesia (Apr 1)—aligning with the historical global average of about 16 such events annually from plate boundary stresses along subduction zones in the Ring of Fire. With nearly 30% of the year elapsed, implied probabilities cluster tightly around 11–19 total, differentiating via statistical variability in seismic release: recent clustering raises odds for 14–16 (27.5%) over 11–13 (26.5%), though Poisson-like distributions allow for quiet periods or aftershock sequences. USGS catalog updates provide ongoing clarity, with no reliable short-term forecasts amid inherent tectonic unpredictability.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,232,529
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a year-to-date pace of four USGS-confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026—Malaysia (Feb 22), Tonga (Mar 24), Vanuatu (Mar 30), and Indonesia (Apr 1)—aligning with the historical global average of about 16 such events annually from plate boundary stresses along subduction zones in the Ring of Fire. With nearly 30% of the year elapsed, implied probabilities cluster tightly around 11–19 total, differentiating via statistical variability in seismic release: recent clustering raises odds for 14–16 (27.5%) over 11–13 (26.5%), though Poisson-like distributions allow for quiet periods or aftershock sequences. USGS catalog updates provide ongoing clarity, with no reliable short-term forecasts amid inherent tectonic unpredictability.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,232,529
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "14–16" a 28%, seguito da "11–13" a 27%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 28¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 28% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?" ha generato $1.2 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 31, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?" è "14–16" a 28%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 28% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "11–13" a 27%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.