Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against Democratic challenger Michael Masuda, who received about 24%. The district's Republican partisan lean, reflected in an R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results, underpins the 89.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November general election. McClintock's established fundraising edge, name recognition, and the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would alter the matchup reinforce this positioning. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, limiting Democratic paths despite California's broader electoral dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/02
共和党
90%
民主党
10%
新規
新規
2026/11/02
共和党
$5,469 Vol.
90%
民主党
$2,969 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against Democratic challenger Michael Masuda, who received about 24%. The district's Republican partisan lean, reflected in an R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results, underpins the 89.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November general election. McClintock's established fundraising edge, name recognition, and the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would alter the matchup reinforce this positioning. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, limiting Democratic paths despite California's broader electoral dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$8,438終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against Democratic challenger Michael Masuda, who received about 24%. The district's Republican partisan lean, reflected in an R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results, underpins the 89.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November general election. McClintock's established fundraising edge, name recognition, and the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would alter the matchup reinforce this positioning. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, limiting Democratic paths despite California's broader electoral dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,438終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against Democratic challenger Michael Masuda, who received about 24%. The district's Republican partisan lean, reflected in an R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results, underpins the 89.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November general election. McClintock's established fundraising edge, name recognition, and the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would alter the matchup reinforce this positioning. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, limiting Democratic paths despite California's broader electoral dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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