The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+9 and unanimous "Solid" or "Safe" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold following longtime incumbent Julia Brownley's retirement. A crowded field of Democratic primary candidates led by state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin is expected to produce a strong nominee in today's top-two primary, while Republican options remain limited in infrastructure and name recognition. This structural edge, combined with California's broader midterm dynamics favoring the party, sustains the 92.5% implied probability. A Republican advance would require an unusually fragmented Democratic vote or unforeseen late developments such as candidate withdrawals or turnout anomalies in the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,668 Vol.
$27,668 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$27,668 Vol.
$27,668 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,061 Vol.
93%
共和党
$13,607 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+9 and unanimous "Solid" or "Safe" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold following longtime incumbent Julia Brownley's retirement. A crowded field of Democratic primary candidates led by state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin is expected to produce a strong nominee in today's top-two primary, while Republican options remain limited in infrastructure and name recognition. This structural edge, combined with California's broader midterm dynamics favoring the party, sustains the 92.5% implied probability. A Republican advance would require an unusually fragmented Democratic vote or unforeseen late developments such as candidate withdrawals or turnout anomalies in the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$27,668終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+9 and unanimous "Solid" or "Safe" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold following longtime incumbent Julia Brownley's retirement. A crowded field of Democratic primary candidates led by state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin is expected to produce a strong nominee in today's top-two primary, while Republican options remain limited in infrastructure and name recognition. This structural edge, combined with California's broader midterm dynamics favoring the party, sustains the 92.5% implied probability. A Republican advance would require an unusually fragmented Democratic vote or unforeseen late developments such as candidate withdrawals or turnout anomalies in the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,668終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+9 and unanimous "Solid" or "Safe" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold following longtime incumbent Julia Brownley's retirement. A crowded field of Democratic primary candidates led by state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin is expected to produce a strong nominee in today's top-two primary, while Republican options remain limited in infrastructure and name recognition. This structural edge, combined with California's broader midterm dynamics favoring the party, sustains the 92.5% implied probability. A Republican advance would require an unusually fragmented Democratic vote or unforeseen late developments such as candidate withdrawals or turnout anomalies in the general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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