Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Amsterdam's highest temperature on April 6, with evenly split 50% implied probabilities across bins from 6°C or below to 16°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecast models amid early-spring volatility. KNMI's latest guidance (updated April 2) projects a mild 15°C maximum under partly sunny skies, low 10% precipitation chance, and light southwest winds advecting Atlantic warmth, but the ensemble plume hints at spreads potentially 8-18°C due to disagreements on cloudiness suppressing solar heating versus clearer skies boosting peaks. Historical April averages hover near 12°C with frequent 4-6°C daily swings from North Sea influences; watch twice-daily ECMWF, GFS, and ICON updates for resolution-clarifying shifts before Sunday's observation at Schiphol station.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 6?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 6?
14°C 27%
15°C 26%
7°C 26%
8°C 26%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
6°C or below
2%
7°C
26%
8°C
26%
9°C
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
27%
15°C
26%
16°C or higher
15%
14°C 27%
15°C 26%
7°C 26%
8°C 26%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
7°C
$0 Vol.
26%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Amsterdam's highest temperature on April 6, with evenly split 50% implied probabilities across bins from 6°C or below to 16°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecast models amid early-spring volatility. KNMI's latest guidance (updated April 2) projects a mild 15°C maximum under partly sunny skies, low 10% precipitation chance, and light southwest winds advecting Atlantic warmth, but the ensemble plume hints at spreads potentially 8-18°C due to disagreements on cloudiness suppressing solar heating versus clearer skies boosting peaks. Historical April averages hover near 12°C with frequent 4-6°C daily swings from North Sea influences; watch twice-daily ECMWF, GFS, and ICON updates for resolution-clarifying shifts before Sunday's observation at Schiphol station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 9:07 PM ET
音量
$5終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 9:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Amsterdam's highest temperature on April 6, with evenly split 50% implied probabilities across bins from 6°C or below to 16°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecast models amid early-spring volatility. KNMI's latest guidance (updated April 2) projects a mild 15°C maximum under partly sunny skies, low 10% precipitation chance, and light southwest winds advecting Atlantic warmth, but the ensemble plume hints at spreads potentially 8-18°C due to disagreements on cloudiness suppressing solar heating versus clearer skies boosting peaks. Historical April averages hover near 12°C with frequent 4-6°C daily swings from North Sea influences; watch twice-daily ECMWF, GFS, and ICON updates for resolution-clarifying shifts before Sunday's observation at Schiphol station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$5終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 9:07 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Amsterdam's highest temperature on April 6, with evenly split 50% implied probabilities across bins from 6°C or below to 16°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecast models amid early-spring volatility. KNMI's latest guidance (updated April 2) projects a mild 15°C maximum under partly sunny skies, low 10% precipitation chance, and light southwest winds advecting Atlantic warmth, but the ensemble plume hints at spreads potentially 8-18°C due to disagreements on cloudiness suppressing solar heating versus clearer skies boosting peaks. Historical April averages hover near 12°C with frequent 4-6°C daily swings from North Sea influences; watch twice-daily ECMWF, GFS, and ICON updates for resolution-clarifying shifts before Sunday's observation at Schiphol station.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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