Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 52-53°F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) on April 2, 2026, backed by official observations from Weather Underground and National Weather Service data confirming a peak of 53°F around mid-afternoon amid persistent overcast skies and cool southwest winds. This positioning reflects verified hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing in the low 50s°F under a marine-influenced air mass typical for early April, well below the 57°F climatological normal. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs had converged on this range pre-event, with no significant deviations observed. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions by NOAA, such as sensor recalibrations, though NWS climate summaries—expected today—solidify this outcome given the skin-in-the-game trader alignment with real-time meteorological records.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月2日のシアトルの最高気温は?
4月2日のシアトルの最高気温は?
52~53°F 98.9%
54〜55°F 1.0%
56~57°F <1%
58°F以上 <1%
$143,483 Vol.
$143,483 Vol.
50~51°F
<1%
52~53°F
99%
54〜55°F
1%
56~57°F
<1%
58°F以上
<1%
52~53°F 98.9%
54〜55°F 1.0%
56~57°F <1%
58°F以上 <1%
$143,483 Vol.
$143,483 Vol.
50~51°F
<1%
52~53°F
99%
54〜55°F
1%
56~57°F
<1%
58°F以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 29, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 52-53°F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) on April 2, 2026, backed by official observations from Weather Underground and National Weather Service data confirming a peak of 53°F around mid-afternoon amid persistent overcast skies and cool southwest winds. This positioning reflects verified hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing in the low 50s°F under a marine-influenced air mass typical for early April, well below the 57°F climatological normal. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs had converged on this range pre-event, with no significant deviations observed. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions by NOAA, such as sensor recalibrations, though NWS climate summaries—expected today—solidify this outcome given the skin-in-the-game trader alignment with real-time meteorological records.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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