Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 26°C (37.5%) and 27°C (33.0%) as Madrid's highest temperature on April 6, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime maxima of 25–28°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia. This follows AEMET-observed highs climbing to 21.4°C on April 3 under clear skies and light southerly winds, aligning with the agency's seasonal forecast for an above-normal spring. The tight race reflects ensemble spread: members with sustained sunshine and warm advection tip toward 27°C, while those anticipating afternoon cloud buildup or slightly stronger mixing cap at 26°C. Key uncertainties include ridge positioning and cloud evolution; watch AEMET's daily update and ECMWF refresh on April 5 for shifts. Historical early-April averages hover near 19°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 6?
26°C 38%
27°C 33%
28°C 13.9%
25°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
5%
25°C
11%
26°C
38%
27°C
33%
28°C
14%
29°C or higher
4%
26°C 38%
27°C 33%
28°C 13.9%
25°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
19°C or below
$443 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$772 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$493 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$481 Vol.
1%
23°C
$680 Vol.
3%
24°C
$630 Vol.
5%
25°C
$536 Vol.
11%
26°C
$581 Vol.
38%
27°C
$557 Vol.
33%
28°C
$401 Vol.
14%
29°C or higher
$299 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 26°C (37.5%) and 27°C (33.0%) as Madrid's highest temperature on April 6, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime maxima of 25–28°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia. This follows AEMET-observed highs climbing to 21.4°C on April 3 under clear skies and light southerly winds, aligning with the agency's seasonal forecast for an above-normal spring. The tight race reflects ensemble spread: members with sustained sunshine and warm advection tip toward 27°C, while those anticipating afternoon cloud buildup or slightly stronger mixing cap at 26°C. Key uncertainties include ridge positioning and cloud evolution; watch AEMET's daily update and ECMWF refresh on April 5 for shifts. Historical early-April averages hover near 19°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ET
音量
$5,868終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 26°C (37.5%) and 27°C (33.0%) as Madrid's highest temperature on April 6, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime maxima of 25–28°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia. This follows AEMET-observed highs climbing to 21.4°C on April 3 under clear skies and light southerly winds, aligning with the agency's seasonal forecast for an above-normal spring. The tight race reflects ensemble spread: members with sustained sunshine and warm advection tip toward 27°C, while those anticipating afternoon cloud buildup or slightly stronger mixing cap at 26°C. Key uncertainties include ridge positioning and cloud evolution; watch AEMET's daily update and ECMWF refresh on April 5 for shifts. Historical early-April averages hover near 19°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$5,868終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 26°C (37.5%) and 27°C (33.0%) as Madrid's highest temperature on April 6, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime maxima of 25–28°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia. This follows AEMET-observed highs climbing to 21.4°C on April 3 under clear skies and light southerly winds, aligning with the agency's seasonal forecast for an above-normal spring. The tight race reflects ensemble spread: members with sustained sunshine and warm advection tip toward 27°C, while those anticipating afternoon cloud buildup or slightly stronger mixing cap at 26°C. Key uncertainties include ridge positioning and cloud evolution; watch AEMET's daily update and ECMWF refresh on April 5 for shifts. Historical early-April averages hover near 19°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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