Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (32.5% implied probability) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest forecast models converging on 25–27°C amid persistent cloudy skies, high humidity near 90%, and patchy rain risks that suppress peak solar heating. AccuWeather projects a 25°C high under humid, overcast conditions with showers, while other sources like Weather25 indicate up to 27°C with possible intermittent clearing; this model spread reflects uncertainty in cloud cover timing and light southerly winds influencing sea breeze moderation. Early April climatology supports 25–26°C averages at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, the resolution site, but variables like frontal passage remnants or upper-level ridging could nudge outcomes toward 24°C (cooler clouds) or 28°C (brief sun breaks). China Meteorological Administration updates through April 3 may refine odds before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
26°C 35%
25°C 19%
27°C 18%
24°C 17%
$10,671 Vol.
$10,671 Vol.
2026/04/04
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
17%
25°C
19%
26°C
35%
27°C
18%
28°C
13%
29°C or higher
3%
26°C 35%
25°C 19%
27°C 18%
24°C 17%
$10,671 Vol.
$10,671 Vol.
2026/04/04
19°C or below
$1,550 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,229 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,151 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,290 Vol.
3%
23°C
$890 Vol.
3%
24°C
$481 Vol.
17%
25°C
$429 Vol.
19%
26°C
$680 Vol.
35%
27°C
$533 Vol.
18%
28°C
$1,029 Vol.
13%
29°C or higher
$1,440 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (32.5% implied probability) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest forecast models converging on 25–27°C amid persistent cloudy skies, high humidity near 90%, and patchy rain risks that suppress peak solar heating. AccuWeather projects a 25°C high under humid, overcast conditions with showers, while other sources like Weather25 indicate up to 27°C with possible intermittent clearing; this model spread reflects uncertainty in cloud cover timing and light southerly winds influencing sea breeze moderation. Early April climatology supports 25–26°C averages at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, the resolution site, but variables like frontal passage remnants or upper-level ridging could nudge outcomes toward 24°C (cooler clouds) or 28°C (brief sun breaks). China Meteorological Administration updates through April 3 may refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
音量
$10,671終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (32.5% implied probability) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest forecast models converging on 25–27°C amid persistent cloudy skies, high humidity near 90%, and patchy rain risks that suppress peak solar heating. AccuWeather projects a 25°C high under humid, overcast conditions with showers, while other sources like Weather25 indicate up to 27°C with possible intermittent clearing; this model spread reflects uncertainty in cloud cover timing and light southerly winds influencing sea breeze moderation. Early April climatology supports 25–26°C averages at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, the resolution site, but variables like frontal passage remnants or upper-level ridging could nudge outcomes toward 24°C (cooler clouds) or 28°C (brief sun breaks). China Meteorological Administration updates through April 3 may refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$10,671終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (32.5% implied probability) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest forecast models converging on 25–27°C amid persistent cloudy skies, high humidity near 90%, and patchy rain risks that suppress peak solar heating. AccuWeather projects a 25°C high under humid, overcast conditions with showers, while other sources like Weather25 indicate up to 27°C with possible intermittent clearing; this model spread reflects uncertainty in cloud cover timing and light southerly winds influencing sea breeze moderation. Early April climatology supports 25–26°C averages at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, the resolution site, but variables like frontal passage remnants or upper-level ridging could nudge outcomes toward 24°C (cooler clouds) or 28°C (brief sun breaks). China Meteorological Administration updates through April 3 may refine odds before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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