Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 64-69°F outcomes at 29% implied probability each for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 8, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and NOAA model ensembles projecting mid-60s highs amid persistent marine layer stratus clouds capping solar heating. Recent developments include a cool early April pattern, with April 1 highs limited by overcast skies and 0.05 inches of light rain per NWS observations at KSFO, aligning with climatological normals of 64°F for early April. Differentiating factors include boundary layer inversion strength and onshore wind speeds—persistent west winds below 10 mph favor earlier stratus burn-off toward 68-69°F, while stronger flow keeps peaks at 64-65°F; model runs diverge by 2-4°F on clearing timing. Updated NWS guidance due April 5 could refine odds as the event nears resolution via official KSFO daily maximum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 8?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 8?
74°F or higher 28%
68-69°F 21%
64-65°F 21%
66-67°F 21%
新規
新規
2026/04/08
55°F or below
3%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
17%
60-61°F
17%
62-63°F
17%
64-65°F
21%
66-67°F
21%
68-69°F
21%
70-71°F
17%
72-73°F
20%
74°F or higher
28%
74°F or higher 28%
68-69°F 21%
64-65°F 21%
66-67°F 21%
新規
新規
2026/04/08
55°F or below
$25 Vol.
3%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
17%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
17%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
17%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
17%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
21%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
21%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
21%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
17%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
20%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 64-69°F outcomes at 29% implied probability each for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 8, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and NOAA model ensembles projecting mid-60s highs amid persistent marine layer stratus clouds capping solar heating. Recent developments include a cool early April pattern, with April 1 highs limited by overcast skies and 0.05 inches of light rain per NWS observations at KSFO, aligning with climatological normals of 64°F for early April. Differentiating factors include boundary layer inversion strength and onshore wind speeds—persistent west winds below 10 mph favor earlier stratus burn-off toward 68-69°F, while stronger flow keeps peaks at 64-65°F; model runs diverge by 2-4°F on clearing timing. Updated NWS guidance due April 5 could refine odds as the event nears resolution via official KSFO daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
音量
$25終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 64-69°F outcomes at 29% implied probability each for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 8, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and NOAA model ensembles projecting mid-60s highs amid persistent marine layer stratus clouds capping solar heating. Recent developments include a cool early April pattern, with April 1 highs limited by overcast skies and 0.05 inches of light rain per NWS observations at KSFO, aligning with climatological normals of 64°F for early April. Differentiating factors include boundary layer inversion strength and onshore wind speeds—persistent west winds below 10 mph favor earlier stratus burn-off toward 68-69°F, while stronger flow keeps peaks at 64-65°F; model runs diverge by 2-4°F on clearing timing. Updated NWS guidance due April 5 could refine odds as the event nears resolution via official KSFO daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$25終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 64-69°F outcomes at 29% implied probability each for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 8, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and NOAA model ensembles projecting mid-60s highs amid persistent marine layer stratus clouds capping solar heating. Recent developments include a cool early April pattern, with April 1 highs limited by overcast skies and 0.05 inches of light rain per NWS observations at KSFO, aligning with climatological normals of 64°F for early April. Differentiating factors include boundary layer inversion strength and onshore wind speeds—persistent west winds below 10 mph favor earlier stratus burn-off toward 68-69°F, while stronger flow keeps peaks at 64-65°F; model runs diverge by 2-4°F on clearing timing. Updated NWS guidance due April 5 could refine odds as the event nears resolution via official KSFO daily maximum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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