National Weather Service forecasts project a high temperature of around 70°F at Central Park, NY on April 4, reflecting strong model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles that show a ridge of high pressure ushering in warm southerly winds and mostly sunny skies after recent cloudy conditions. This positioning above the early April climatological normal of 56°F explains the market's 98.5% implied probability for 58°F or higher, as traders weigh the skin-in-the-game alignment with official guidance from NOAA's monitoring stations like Central Park and LaGuardia. Realistic challenges include a delayed cold front or persistent marine stratus layer capping highs near 57°F, though low-probability per current high-resolution guidance; watch NWS updates and April 3 afternoon model runs for refinements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
58°F or higher 98.5%
56-57°F <1%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
$102,013 Vol.
$102,013 Vol.
2026/04/04
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58°F or higher
99%
58°F or higher 98.5%
56-57°F <1%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
$102,013 Vol.
$102,013 Vol.
2026/04/04
39°F or below
$12,239 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$10,897 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$7,053 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$7,577 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$7,214 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$10,210 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$11,496 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$8,255 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$7,029 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$7,417 Vol.
1%
58°F or higher
$12,626 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts project a high temperature of around 70°F at Central Park, NY on April 4, reflecting strong model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles that show a ridge of high pressure ushering in warm southerly winds and mostly sunny skies after recent cloudy conditions. This positioning above the early April climatological normal of 56°F explains the market's 98.5% implied probability for 58°F or higher, as traders weigh the skin-in-the-game alignment with official guidance from NOAA's monitoring stations like Central Park and LaGuardia. Realistic challenges include a delayed cold front or persistent marine stratus layer capping highs near 57°F, though low-probability per current high-resolution guidance; watch NWS updates and April 3 afternoon model runs for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
音量
$102,013終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts project a high temperature of around 70°F at Central Park, NY on April 4, reflecting strong model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles that show a ridge of high pressure ushering in warm southerly winds and mostly sunny skies after recent cloudy conditions. This positioning above the early April climatological normal of 56°F explains the market's 98.5% implied probability for 58°F or higher, as traders weigh the skin-in-the-game alignment with official guidance from NOAA's monitoring stations like Central Park and LaGuardia. Realistic challenges include a delayed cold front or persistent marine stratus layer capping highs near 57°F, though low-probability per current high-resolution guidance; watch NWS updates and April 3 afternoon model runs for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$102,013終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETNational Weather Service forecasts project a high temperature of around 70°F at Central Park, NY on April 4, reflecting strong model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles that show a ridge of high pressure ushering in warm southerly winds and mostly sunny skies after recent cloudy conditions. This positioning above the early April climatological normal of 56°F explains the market's 98.5% implied probability for 58°F or higher, as traders weigh the skin-in-the-game alignment with official guidance from NOAA's monitoring stations like Central Park and LaGuardia. Realistic challenges include a delayed cold front or persistent marine stratus layer capping highs near 57°F, though low-probability per current high-resolution guidance; watch NWS updates and April 3 afternoon model runs for refinements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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