Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco's April 6 high temperature, with NOAA model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting peaks between 62°F and 67°F amid persistent onshore winds and marine layer stratus clouds that suppress daytime heating. Recent 00z and 12z model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal spread, differentiating outcomes via fog burn-off timing and low-level wind shear—stronger westerlies favor 62-63°F (22.5% implied), while brief high-pressure ridging could push to 66-67°F (25.5%). April climatology averages 64°F highs, aligning with this clustering, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists ahead of Sunday's NWS update and Monday's observational data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 6?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 6?
64-65°F 26%
66-67°F 26%
62-63°F 23%
68-69°F 12%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
6%
60-61°F
8%
62-63°F
23%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
26%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
10%
74°F or higher
1%
64-65°F 26%
66-67°F 26%
62-63°F 23%
68-69°F 12%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
55°F or below
$625 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$446 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$221 Vol.
6%
60-61°F
$182 Vol.
8%
62-63°F
$165 Vol.
23%
64-65°F
$165 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$226 Vol.
26%
68-69°F
$275 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$291 Vol.
10%
72-73°F
$319 Vol.
10%
74°F or higher
$2,185 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco's April 6 high temperature, with NOAA model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting peaks between 62°F and 67°F amid persistent onshore winds and marine layer stratus clouds that suppress daytime heating. Recent 00z and 12z model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal spread, differentiating outcomes via fog burn-off timing and low-level wind shear—stronger westerlies favor 62-63°F (22.5% implied), while brief high-pressure ridging could push to 66-67°F (25.5%). April climatology averages 64°F highs, aligning with this clustering, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists ahead of Sunday's NWS update and Monday's observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
音量
$5,099終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco's April 6 high temperature, with NOAA model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting peaks between 62°F and 67°F amid persistent onshore winds and marine layer stratus clouds that suppress daytime heating. Recent 00z and 12z model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal spread, differentiating outcomes via fog burn-off timing and low-level wind shear—stronger westerlies favor 62-63°F (22.5% implied), while brief high-pressure ridging could push to 66-67°F (25.5%). April climatology averages 64°F highs, aligning with this clustering, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists ahead of Sunday's NWS update and Monday's observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$5,099終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco's April 6 high temperature, with NOAA model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting peaks between 62°F and 67°F amid persistent onshore winds and marine layer stratus clouds that suppress daytime heating. Recent 00z and 12z model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal spread, differentiating outcomes via fog burn-off timing and low-level wind shear—stronger westerlies favor 62-63°F (22.5% implied), while brief high-pressure ridging could push to 66-67°F (25.5%). April climatology averages 64°F highs, aligning with this clustering, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists ahead of Sunday's NWS update and Monday's observational data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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