Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33.5% probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching 19°C on April 4, reflecting divergent short-range forecasts amid typical early-spring variability. Recent observations show highs of 19–20°C on April 1–2, with April 3 forecasts around 22°C under partly cloudy skies, but models like those reflected in BBC Weather (20°C sunny) and Weather Underground (20°C sunny) cluster near 19–23°C, tempered by potential southerly breezes boosting advection of warmer air or afternoon winds enhancing mixing. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing peaks below 19°C (22.5% odds), gusty conditions aiding 20°C+ (21% for 20°C), or hazy overcast dropping to 18°C (22.5%). Resolution hinges on China Meteorological Administration hourly data; monitor updates as boundary layer effects resolve uncertainty before evening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
19°C 34%
20°C 22%
18°C 22%
21°C 14%
$17,278 Vol.
$17,278 Vol.
2026/04/04
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
8%
18°C
22%
19°C
34%
20°C
22%
21°C
14%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
2%
19°C 34%
20°C 22%
18°C 22%
21°C 14%
$17,278 Vol.
$17,278 Vol.
2026/04/04
13°C or below
$2,971 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,612 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,624 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$2,744 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,067 Vol.
8%
18°C
$709 Vol.
22%
19°C
$658 Vol.
34%
20°C
$641 Vol.
22%
21°C
$1,183 Vol.
14%
22°C
$1,223 Vol.
5%
23°C or higher
$1,846 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33.5% probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching 19°C on April 4, reflecting divergent short-range forecasts amid typical early-spring variability. Recent observations show highs of 19–20°C on April 1–2, with April 3 forecasts around 22°C under partly cloudy skies, but models like those reflected in BBC Weather (20°C sunny) and Weather Underground (20°C sunny) cluster near 19–23°C, tempered by potential southerly breezes boosting advection of warmer air or afternoon winds enhancing mixing. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing peaks below 19°C (22.5% odds), gusty conditions aiding 20°C+ (21% for 20°C), or hazy overcast dropping to 18°C (22.5%). Resolution hinges on China Meteorological Administration hourly data; monitor updates as boundary layer effects resolve uncertainty before evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
音量
$17,278終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33.5% probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching 19°C on April 4, reflecting divergent short-range forecasts amid typical early-spring variability. Recent observations show highs of 19–20°C on April 1–2, with April 3 forecasts around 22°C under partly cloudy skies, but models like those reflected in BBC Weather (20°C sunny) and Weather Underground (20°C sunny) cluster near 19–23°C, tempered by potential southerly breezes boosting advection of warmer air or afternoon winds enhancing mixing. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing peaks below 19°C (22.5% odds), gusty conditions aiding 20°C+ (21% for 20°C), or hazy overcast dropping to 18°C (22.5%). Resolution hinges on China Meteorological Administration hourly data; monitor updates as boundary layer effects resolve uncertainty before evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$17,278終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33.5% probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching 19°C on April 4, reflecting divergent short-range forecasts amid typical early-spring variability. Recent observations show highs of 19–20°C on April 1–2, with April 3 forecasts around 22°C under partly cloudy skies, but models like those reflected in BBC Weather (20°C sunny) and Weather Underground (20°C sunny) cluster near 19–23°C, tempered by potential southerly breezes boosting advection of warmer air or afternoon winds enhancing mixing. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing peaks below 19°C (22.5% odds), gusty conditions aiding 20°C+ (21% for 20°C), or hazy overcast dropping to 18°C (22.5%). Resolution hinges on China Meteorological Administration hourly data; monitor updates as boundary layer effects resolve uncertainty before evening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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