Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global forecast models projecting Tokyo's highest temperature on April 8 near 17-18°C, with 17°C and 18°C leading at 29% and 28.5% implied probabilities amid ensemble spread. Recent JMA one-month outlook released April 2 highlights mild spring conditions with potential warmer spikes above average early April norms (historical highs ~16-18°C), but uncertainty stems from approaching frontal systems that could cap peaks via cloud cover and showers (54-60% precipitation odds in some projections), versus high-pressure persistence favoring 20°C+ (25.5%). Key differentiators include southerly wind strength boosting advection and soil moisture from prior rain suppressing highs; watch JMA's daily updates through April 6 for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 8?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 8?
17°C 30%
18°C 29%
20°C or higher 26%
16°C 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/08
10°C or below
3%
11°C
8%
12°C
8%
13°C
8%
14°C
8%
15°C
8%
16°C
17%
17°C
30%
18°C
29%
19°C
12%
20°C or higher
26%
17°C 30%
18°C 29%
20°C or higher 26%
16°C 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/08
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
11°C
$0 Vol.
8%
12°C
$0 Vol.
8%
13°C
$0 Vol.
8%
14°C
$10 Vol.
8%
15°C
$10 Vol.
8%
16°C
$10 Vol.
17%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$10 Vol.
29%
19°C
$10 Vol.
12%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global forecast models projecting Tokyo's highest temperature on April 8 near 17-18°C, with 17°C and 18°C leading at 29% and 28.5% implied probabilities amid ensemble spread. Recent JMA one-month outlook released April 2 highlights mild spring conditions with potential warmer spikes above average early April norms (historical highs ~16-18°C), but uncertainty stems from approaching frontal systems that could cap peaks via cloud cover and showers (54-60% precipitation odds in some projections), versus high-pressure persistence favoring 20°C+ (25.5%). Key differentiators include southerly wind strength boosting advection and soil moisture from prior rain suppressing highs; watch JMA's daily updates through April 6 for refined guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
音量
$56終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global forecast models projecting Tokyo's highest temperature on April 8 near 17-18°C, with 17°C and 18°C leading at 29% and 28.5% implied probabilities amid ensemble spread. Recent JMA one-month outlook released April 2 highlights mild spring conditions with potential warmer spikes above average early April norms (historical highs ~16-18°C), but uncertainty stems from approaching frontal systems that could cap peaks via cloud cover and showers (54-60% precipitation odds in some projections), versus high-pressure persistence favoring 20°C+ (25.5%). Key differentiators include southerly wind strength boosting advection and soil moisture from prior rain suppressing highs; watch JMA's daily updates through April 6 for refined guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$56終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global forecast models projecting Tokyo's highest temperature on April 8 near 17-18°C, with 17°C and 18°C leading at 29% and 28.5% implied probabilities amid ensemble spread. Recent JMA one-month outlook released April 2 highlights mild spring conditions with potential warmer spikes above average early April norms (historical highs ~16-18°C), but uncertainty stems from approaching frontal systems that could cap peaks via cloud cover and showers (54-60% precipitation odds in some projections), versus high-pressure persistence favoring 20°C+ (25.5%). Key differentiators include southerly wind strength boosting advection and soil moisture from prior rain suppressing highs; watch JMA's daily updates through April 6 for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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