Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Tokyo on April 5 at 36% implied probability, with 22°C (26%) and 23°C or higher (24%) close behind, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 20–23°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting sunny skies and above-normal spring warming. Recent observations show Tokyo highs of 17–19°C on April 2–3, aligning with early April climatological averages around 18°C but trending warmer due to reduced cloud cover and southerly flow; historical variability supports this range, though frontal boundaries could introduce uncertainty. JMA's April 2 one-month outlook noted potential heat in eastern Japan, bolstering optimism for 21°C+. Watch for tomorrow's model updates, which could shift odds as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月5日の東京の最高気温は？
4月5日の東京の最高気温は？
22℃ 34%
21℃ 34%
23℃以上 21%
20°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
13℃以下
<1%
14°C
<1%
15℃
<1%
16℃
1%
17°C
2%
18℃
3%
19℃
6%
20°C
13%
21℃
34%
22℃
34%
23℃以上
21%
22℃ 34%
21℃ 34%
23℃以上 21%
20°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
13℃以下
$791 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$891 Vol.
<1%
15℃
$749 Vol.
<1%
16℃
$790 Vol.
1%
17°C
$707 Vol.
2%
18℃
$664 Vol.
3%
19℃
$602 Vol.
6%
20°C
$770 Vol.
13%
21℃
$574 Vol.
34%
22℃
$614 Vol.
34%
23℃以上
$1,112 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Tokyo on April 5 at 36% implied probability, with 22°C (26%) and 23°C or higher (24%) close behind, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 20–23°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting sunny skies and above-normal spring warming. Recent observations show Tokyo highs of 17–19°C on April 2–3, aligning with early April climatological averages around 18°C but trending warmer due to reduced cloud cover and southerly flow; historical variability supports this range, though frontal boundaries could introduce uncertainty. JMA's April 2 one-month outlook noted potential heat in eastern Japan, bolstering optimism for 21°C+. Watch for tomorrow's model updates, which could shift odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
音量
$8,205終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Tokyo on April 5 at 36% implied probability, with 22°C (26%) and 23°C or higher (24%) close behind, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 20–23°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting sunny skies and above-normal spring warming. Recent observations show Tokyo highs of 17–19°C on April 2–3, aligning with early April climatological averages around 18°C but trending warmer due to reduced cloud cover and southerly flow; historical variability supports this range, though frontal boundaries could introduce uncertainty. JMA's April 2 one-month outlook noted potential heat in eastern Japan, bolstering optimism for 21°C+. Watch for tomorrow's model updates, which could shift odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$8,205終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Tokyo on April 5 at 36% implied probability, with 22°C (26%) and 23°C or higher (24%) close behind, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 20–23°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting sunny skies and above-normal spring warming. Recent observations show Tokyo highs of 17–19°C on April 2–3, aligning with early April climatological averages around 18°C but trending warmer due to reduced cloud cover and southerly flow; historical variability supports this range, though frontal boundaries could introduce uncertainty. JMA's April 2 one-month outlook noted potential heat in eastern Japan, bolstering optimism for 21°C+. Watch for tomorrow's model updates, which could shift odds as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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