The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast update on April 3 at 05:00 JST projects Tokyo's highest temperature on April 4 at 19°C under cloudy skies turning rainy later, with 50-60% precipitation odds in the afternoon—conditions that could cap daytime heating via increased cloud cover and frontal influences typical of early spring. Trader consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes at 17°C (40% implied probability) and 18°C (27%), reflecting historical April variability where cloud-induced suppression often trims model peaks by 1-2°C, alongside recent milder days around 16-18°C. Global ensemble models show similar clustering near 17-19°C, but resolution hinges on official JMA observations from Tokyo stations; watch for the next 11:00 JST forecast refresh amid ongoing uncertainty in insolation and wind patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 4?
17°C 43%
18°C 32%
19°C 12.4%
16°C 11%
$19,544 Vol.
$19,544 Vol.
2026/04/04
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
11%
17°C
43%
18°C
32%
19°C
12%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
2%
17°C 43%
18°C 32%
19°C 12.4%
16°C 11%
$19,544 Vol.
$19,544 Vol.
2026/04/04
11°C or below
$2,610 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,461 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,164 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,727 Vol.
1%
15°C
$1,407 Vol.
2%
16°C
$1,768 Vol.
11%
17°C
$1,508 Vol.
43%
18°C
$1,618 Vol.
32%
19°C
$1,889 Vol.
12%
20°C
$2,027 Vol.
5%
21°C or higher
$2,590 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast update on April 3 at 05:00 JST projects Tokyo's highest temperature on April 4 at 19°C under cloudy skies turning rainy later, with 50-60% precipitation odds in the afternoon—conditions that could cap daytime heating via increased cloud cover and frontal influences typical of early spring. Trader consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes at 17°C (40% implied probability) and 18°C (27%), reflecting historical April variability where cloud-induced suppression often trims model peaks by 1-2°C, alongside recent milder days around 16-18°C. Global ensemble models show similar clustering near 17-19°C, but resolution hinges on official JMA observations from Tokyo stations; watch for the next 11:00 JST forecast refresh amid ongoing uncertainty in insolation and wind patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
音量
$19,544終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast update on April 3 at 05:00 JST projects Tokyo's highest temperature on April 4 at 19°C under cloudy skies turning rainy later, with 50-60% precipitation odds in the afternoon—conditions that could cap daytime heating via increased cloud cover and frontal influences typical of early spring. Trader consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes at 17°C (40% implied probability) and 18°C (27%), reflecting historical April variability where cloud-induced suppression often trims model peaks by 1-2°C, alongside recent milder days around 16-18°C. Global ensemble models show similar clustering near 17-19°C, but resolution hinges on official JMA observations from Tokyo stations; watch for the next 11:00 JST forecast refresh amid ongoing uncertainty in insolation and wind patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$19,544終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETThe Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast update on April 3 at 05:00 JST projects Tokyo's highest temperature on April 4 at 19°C under cloudy skies turning rainy later, with 50-60% precipitation odds in the afternoon—conditions that could cap daytime heating via increased cloud cover and frontal influences typical of early spring. Trader consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes at 17°C (40% implied probability) and 18°C (27%), reflecting historical April variability where cloud-induced suppression often trims model peaks by 1-2°C, alongside recent milder days around 16-18°C. Global ensemble models show similar clustering near 17-19°C, but resolution hinges on official JMA observations from Tokyo stations; watch for the next 11:00 JST forecast refresh amid ongoing uncertainty in insolation and wind patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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