Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 21°C (33.5%) and 22°C (28%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts amid a high-pressure ridge over eastern Japan. Recent model runs, including JMA's Meso-Scale Model, show a consensus peak near 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds advecting mild air from the Pacific, but divergences arise from cloud cover variability—clearer afternoons could boost readings to 22°C or higher via enhanced solar heating, while increased marine stratus might cap at 20°C. This follows above-average early April warmth, with sakura full bloom by March 29 signaling persistent mild trends above the 18–19°C historical norm. JMA's next advisory at 00 UTC April 5 could refine probabilities based on updated observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 6?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 6?
21°C 33%
22°C 30%
20°C 17%
23°C or higher 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
9%
20°C
17%
21°C
33%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
17%
21°C 33%
22°C 30%
20°C 17%
23°C or higher 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
13°C or below
$871 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$887 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$994 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$633 Vol.
1%
17°C
$564 Vol.
1%
18°C
$728 Vol.
3%
19°C
$926 Vol.
9%
20°C
$1,182 Vol.
17%
21°C
$803 Vol.
33%
22°C
$885 Vol.
30%
23°C or higher
$1,219 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 21°C (33.5%) and 22°C (28%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts amid a high-pressure ridge over eastern Japan. Recent model runs, including JMA's Meso-Scale Model, show a consensus peak near 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds advecting mild air from the Pacific, but divergences arise from cloud cover variability—clearer afternoons could boost readings to 22°C or higher via enhanced solar heating, while increased marine stratus might cap at 20°C. This follows above-average early April warmth, with sakura full bloom by March 29 signaling persistent mild trends above the 18–19°C historical norm. JMA's next advisory at 00 UTC April 5 could refine probabilities based on updated observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
音量
$9,694終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 21°C (33.5%) and 22°C (28%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts amid a high-pressure ridge over eastern Japan. Recent model runs, including JMA's Meso-Scale Model, show a consensus peak near 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds advecting mild air from the Pacific, but divergences arise from cloud cover variability—clearer afternoons could boost readings to 22°C or higher via enhanced solar heating, while increased marine stratus might cap at 20°C. This follows above-average early April warmth, with sakura full bloom by March 29 signaling persistent mild trends above the 18–19°C historical norm. JMA's next advisory at 00 UTC April 5 could refine probabilities based on updated observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$9,694終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 21°C (33.5%) and 22°C (28%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts amid a high-pressure ridge over eastern Japan. Recent model runs, including JMA's Meso-Scale Model, show a consensus peak near 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds advecting mild air from the Pacific, but divergences arise from cloud cover variability—clearer afternoons could boost readings to 22°C or higher via enhanced solar heating, while increased marine stratus might cap at 20°C. This follows above-average early April warmth, with sakura full bloom by March 29 signaling persistent mild trends above the 18–19°C historical norm. JMA's next advisory at 00 UTC April 5 could refine probabilities based on updated observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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