Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for a 21°C high in Shanghai on April 4, reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures of 21-22°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 10-12 mph. Yesterday's observed high of 23°C at official stations like Xujiahui dropped slightly today amid weak frontal passage, but subsidence from a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge sustains above-climatological warmth—early April averages 18°C influenced by urban heat island effects boosting urban readings 1-2°C. Low precipitation odds (under 10%) minimize cooling risks; watch CMA's evening update for final 00Z runs, as cloud evolution could nudge the diurnal maximum ±1°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
21°C 42%
22°C 29%
20°C 12%
23°C 9%
$65,246 Vol.
$65,246 Vol.
2026/04/04
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
12%
21°C
42%
22°C
29%
23°C
9%
24°C or higher
6%
21°C 42%
22°C 29%
20°C 12%
23°C 9%
$65,246 Vol.
$65,246 Vol.
2026/04/04
14°C or below
$10,155 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$8,986 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$9,315 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5,086 Vol.
1%
18°C
$4,787 Vol.
1%
19°C
$4,965 Vol.
5%
20°C
$3,733 Vol.
12%
21°C
$4,465 Vol.
42%
22°C
$5,145 Vol.
29%
23°C
$3,885 Vol.
9%
24°C or higher
$5,281 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for a 21°C high in Shanghai on April 4, reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures of 21-22°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 10-12 mph. Yesterday's observed high of 23°C at official stations like Xujiahui dropped slightly today amid weak frontal passage, but subsidence from a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge sustains above-climatological warmth—early April averages 18°C influenced by urban heat island effects boosting urban readings 1-2°C. Low precipitation odds (under 10%) minimize cooling risks; watch CMA's evening update for final 00Z runs, as cloud evolution could nudge the diurnal maximum ±1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
音量
$65,246終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for a 21°C high in Shanghai on April 4, reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures of 21-22°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 10-12 mph. Yesterday's observed high of 23°C at official stations like Xujiahui dropped slightly today amid weak frontal passage, but subsidence from a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge sustains above-climatological warmth—early April averages 18°C influenced by urban heat island effects boosting urban readings 1-2°C. Low precipitation odds (under 10%) minimize cooling risks; watch CMA's evening update for final 00Z runs, as cloud evolution could nudge the diurnal maximum ±1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$65,246終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket, with 43.5% implied probability for a 21°C high in Shanghai on April 4, reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures of 21-22°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 10-12 mph. Yesterday's observed high of 23°C at official stations like Xujiahui dropped slightly today amid weak frontal passage, but subsidence from a semi-permanent high-pressure ridge sustains above-climatological warmth—early April averages 18°C influenced by urban heat island effects boosting urban readings 1-2°C. Low precipitation odds (under 10%) minimize cooling risks; watch CMA's evening update for final 00Z runs, as cloud evolution could nudge the diurnal maximum ±1°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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