Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to Chicago reaching 50°F or higher on April 8, aligned with the latest National Weather Service forecast showing a high near 62°F under partly sunny skies. This reflects a post-frontal warming trend after heavy showers and a flood watch through April 4, with highs rebounding from 42°F on April 7 amid southwesterly winds advecting milder air masses. NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles support mid-50s to low-60s peaks, consistent with the seasonal normal of 56°F at O'Hare International Airport. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving upper-air patterns; daily model updates expected through April 7 could refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official observed maximum temperature.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?
50°F or higher 83%
44-45°F 6.9%
46-47°F 7%
40-41°F 5%
新規
新規
2026/04/08
31°F or below
3%
32-33°F
3%
34-35°F
3%
36-37°F
7%
38-39°F
7%
40-41°F
5%
42-43°F
7%
44-45°F
7%
46-47°F
7%
48-49°F
2%
50°F or higher
83%
50°F or higher 83%
44-45°F 6.9%
46-47°F 7%
40-41°F 5%
新規
新規
2026/04/08
31°F or below
$185 Vol.
3%
32-33°F
$55 Vol.
3%
34-35°F
$55 Vol.
3%
36-37°F
$245 Vol.
7%
38-39°F
$44 Vol.
7%
40-41°F
$43 Vol.
5%
42-43°F
$43 Vol.
7%
44-45°F
$43 Vol.
7%
46-47°F
$35 Vol.
7%
48-49°F
$256 Vol.
2%
50°F or higher
$163 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to Chicago reaching 50°F or higher on April 8, aligned with the latest National Weather Service forecast showing a high near 62°F under partly sunny skies. This reflects a post-frontal warming trend after heavy showers and a flood watch through April 4, with highs rebounding from 42°F on April 7 amid southwesterly winds advecting milder air masses. NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles support mid-50s to low-60s peaks, consistent with the seasonal normal of 56°F at O'Hare International Airport. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving upper-air patterns; daily model updates expected through April 7 could refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official observed maximum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
音量
$1,162終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to Chicago reaching 50°F or higher on April 8, aligned with the latest National Weather Service forecast showing a high near 62°F under partly sunny skies. This reflects a post-frontal warming trend after heavy showers and a flood watch through April 4, with highs rebounding from 42°F on April 7 amid southwesterly winds advecting milder air masses. NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles support mid-50s to low-60s peaks, consistent with the seasonal normal of 56°F at O'Hare International Airport. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving upper-air patterns; daily model updates expected through April 7 could refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official observed maximum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,162終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to Chicago reaching 50°F or higher on April 8, aligned with the latest National Weather Service forecast showing a high near 62°F under partly sunny skies. This reflects a post-frontal warming trend after heavy showers and a flood watch through April 4, with highs rebounding from 42°F on April 7 amid southwesterly winds advecting milder air masses. NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles support mid-50s to low-60s peaks, consistent with the seasonal normal of 56°F at O'Hare International Airport. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving upper-air patterns; daily model updates expected through April 7 could refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official observed maximum temperature.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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