Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble guidance projects Chicago O'Hare highs on April 4 in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, with significant spread across members—some capping below 57°F under persistent cloud cover and cool Canadian air mass influence, others reaching low 60s°F if diurnal heating and southerly winds prevail. This model divergence, amid a recent chilly start to April (April 1 high of 39°F, well below the 54.4°F normal), drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 57°F or below (25%), 62-63°F (22%), and 58-59°F (21.5%), reflecting trader consensus on spring transitional uncertainty. Watch tomorrow's 12z model runs and National Weather Service updates for potential sharpening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
57°F or below 26%
58-59°F 22%
62-63°F 19%
60-61°F 16%
$41,710 Vol.
$41,710 Vol.
2026/04/04
57°F or below
26%
58-59°F
22%
60-61°F
16%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
57°F or below 26%
58-59°F 22%
62-63°F 19%
60-61°F 16%
$41,710 Vol.
$41,710 Vol.
2026/04/04
57°F or below
$5,525 Vol.
26%
58-59°F
$3,463 Vol.
22%
60-61°F
$3,972 Vol.
16%
62-63°F
$3,619 Vol.
19%
64-65°F
$3,307 Vol.
13%
66-67°F
$3,756 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$4,111 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$3,447 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$5,133 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,449 Vol.
<1%
76°F or higher
$3,928 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble guidance projects Chicago O'Hare highs on April 4 in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, with significant spread across members—some capping below 57°F under persistent cloud cover and cool Canadian air mass influence, others reaching low 60s°F if diurnal heating and southerly winds prevail. This model divergence, amid a recent chilly start to April (April 1 high of 39°F, well below the 54.4°F normal), drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 57°F or below (25%), 62-63°F (22%), and 58-59°F (21.5%), reflecting trader consensus on spring transitional uncertainty. Watch tomorrow's 12z model runs and National Weather Service updates for potential sharpening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
音量
$41,710終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble guidance projects Chicago O'Hare highs on April 4 in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, with significant spread across members—some capping below 57°F under persistent cloud cover and cool Canadian air mass influence, others reaching low 60s°F if diurnal heating and southerly winds prevail. This model divergence, amid a recent chilly start to April (April 1 high of 39°F, well below the 54.4°F normal), drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 57°F or below (25%), 62-63°F (22%), and 58-59°F (21.5%), reflecting trader consensus on spring transitional uncertainty. Watch tomorrow's 12z model runs and National Weather Service updates for potential sharpening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$41,710終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETLatest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble guidance projects Chicago O'Hare highs on April 4 in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, with significant spread across members—some capping below 57°F under persistent cloud cover and cool Canadian air mass influence, others reaching low 60s°F if diurnal heating and southerly winds prevail. This model divergence, amid a recent chilly start to April (April 1 high of 39°F, well below the 54.4°F normal), drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 57°F or below (25%), 62-63°F (22%), and 58-59°F (21.5%), reflecting trader consensus on spring transitional uncertainty. Watch tomorrow's 12z model runs and National Weather Service updates for potential sharpening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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