Trader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 50-53°F for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 5, slightly below the 54.8°F seasonal normal, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s amid a cool upper-level trough over the Midwest. Recent developments include March 2026's mild average of 44.8°F—nearly 5°F above normal—and an active storm pattern spilling into early April with showers and thunderstorms, fostering cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Differentiating factors among close-leading bins include model spreads on frontal timing, low-level wind shear, and boundary layer mixing; a faster-clearing scenario favors 52-53°F, while persistent overcast supports 48-51°F. New 00z/12z model runs today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service Chicago office will likely sharpen these odds ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
50-51°F 25%
52-53°F 22%
48-49°F 18%
54-55°F 15%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
11%
46-47°F
9%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
25%
52-53°F
22%
54-55°F
15%
56°F or higher
7%
50-51°F 25%
52-53°F 22%
48-49°F 18%
54-55°F 15%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
37°F or below
$724 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$568 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$713 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$1,066 Vol.
2%
44-45°F
$636 Vol.
11%
46-47°F
$696 Vol.
9%
48-49°F
$777 Vol.
18%
50-51°F
$1,044 Vol.
25%
52-53°F
$828 Vol.
22%
54-55°F
$876 Vol.
15%
56°F or higher
$1,237 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 50-53°F for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 5, slightly below the 54.8°F seasonal normal, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s amid a cool upper-level trough over the Midwest. Recent developments include March 2026's mild average of 44.8°F—nearly 5°F above normal—and an active storm pattern spilling into early April with showers and thunderstorms, fostering cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Differentiating factors among close-leading bins include model spreads on frontal timing, low-level wind shear, and boundary layer mixing; a faster-clearing scenario favors 52-53°F, while persistent overcast supports 48-51°F. New 00z/12z model runs today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service Chicago office will likely sharpen these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
音量
$9,164終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 50-53°F for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 5, slightly below the 54.8°F seasonal normal, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s amid a cool upper-level trough over the Midwest. Recent developments include March 2026's mild average of 44.8°F—nearly 5°F above normal—and an active storm pattern spilling into early April with showers and thunderstorms, fostering cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Differentiating factors among close-leading bins include model spreads on frontal timing, low-level wind shear, and boundary layer mixing; a faster-clearing scenario favors 52-53°F, while persistent overcast supports 48-51°F. New 00z/12z model runs today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service Chicago office will likely sharpen these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$9,164終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 50-53°F for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 5, slightly below the 54.8°F seasonal normal, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s amid a cool upper-level trough over the Midwest. Recent developments include March 2026's mild average of 44.8°F—nearly 5°F above normal—and an active storm pattern spilling into early April with showers and thunderstorms, fostering cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Differentiating factors among close-leading bins include model spreads on frontal timing, low-level wind shear, and boundary layer mixing; a faster-clearing scenario favors 52-53°F, while persistent overcast supports 48-51°F. New 00z/12z model runs today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service Chicago office will likely sharpen these odds ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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