Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, alongside IMGW guidance, project maximum temperatures near Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 6 clustering at 12-13°C, fueling trader sentiment with 12°C leading at 31% implied probability and 11°C at 21%, consistent with early April historical averages of 11-12°C. Current chilly conditions—highs of 6-9°C over the April 3-4 weekend amid recent showers—signal a warming trend from building high pressure, but high uncertainty persists due to model spreads of ±2°C, variable cloud cover, and potential cool fronts capping peaks below 12°C or allowing brief surges to 14°C via stronger insolation. Key variables include warm air advection strength, boundary layer mixing, and precipitation clearance; monitor 12Z model runs and April 5 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
12°C 31%
11°C 21%
13°C 19%
10°C 17.8%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
7%
10°C
11%
11°C
21%
12°C
31%
13°C
19%
14°C
12%
15°C
6%
16°C
6%
17°C or higher
4%
12°C 31%
11°C 21%
13°C 19%
10°C 17.8%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
7°C or below
$283 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$932 Vol.
1%
9°C
$251 Vol.
7%
10°C
$224 Vol.
11%
11°C
$133 Vol.
21%
12°C
$290 Vol.
31%
13°C
$186 Vol.
19%
14°C
$237 Vol.
12%
15°C
$166 Vol.
6%
16°C
$177 Vol.
6%
17°C or higher
$329 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, alongside IMGW guidance, project maximum temperatures near Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 6 clustering at 12-13°C, fueling trader sentiment with 12°C leading at 31% implied probability and 11°C at 21%, consistent with early April historical averages of 11-12°C. Current chilly conditions—highs of 6-9°C over the April 3-4 weekend amid recent showers—signal a warming trend from building high pressure, but high uncertainty persists due to model spreads of ±2°C, variable cloud cover, and potential cool fronts capping peaks below 12°C or allowing brief surges to 14°C via stronger insolation. Key variables include warm air advection strength, boundary layer mixing, and precipitation clearance; monitor 12Z model runs and April 5 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
音量
$3,198終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, alongside IMGW guidance, project maximum temperatures near Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 6 clustering at 12-13°C, fueling trader sentiment with 12°C leading at 31% implied probability and 11°C at 21%, consistent with early April historical averages of 11-12°C. Current chilly conditions—highs of 6-9°C over the April 3-4 weekend amid recent showers—signal a warming trend from building high pressure, but high uncertainty persists due to model spreads of ±2°C, variable cloud cover, and potential cool fronts capping peaks below 12°C or allowing brief surges to 14°C via stronger insolation. Key variables include warm air advection strength, boundary layer mixing, and precipitation clearance; monitor 12Z model runs and April 5 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$3,198終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETLatest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, alongside IMGW guidance, project maximum temperatures near Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 6 clustering at 12-13°C, fueling trader sentiment with 12°C leading at 31% implied probability and 11°C at 21%, consistent with early April historical averages of 11-12°C. Current chilly conditions—highs of 6-9°C over the April 3-4 weekend amid recent showers—signal a warming trend from building high pressure, but high uncertainty persists due to model spreads of ±2°C, variable cloud cover, and potential cool fronts capping peaks below 12°C or allowing brief surges to 14°C via stronger insolation. Key variables include warm air advection strength, boundary layer mixing, and precipitation clearance; monitor 12Z model runs and April 5 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
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