The latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, as referenced in market analysis, center Warsaw's highest temperature on April 4 at around 13.5–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, driving trader-implied probabilities of 38.5% for 14°C and 28.5% for 13°C. This positioning reflects IMGW's recent weekly outlook (issued March 30) highlighting cool, stable spring conditions across Poland with average early-April highs near 13°C climatologically, ahead of potential Easter warming post-April 5. Model spreads of ±2°C account for uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) via Wunderground set to resolve the market; watch IMGW updates through midday April 4 for refinements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 4?
14°C 41%
13°C 29%
15°C 14%
12°C 11%
$19,352 Vol.
$19,352 Vol.
2026/04/04
10°C or below
2%
11°C
1%
12°C
11%
13°C
29%
14°C
41%
15°C
14%
16°C
4%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 41%
13°C 29%
15°C 14%
12°C 11%
$19,352 Vol.
$19,352 Vol.
2026/04/04
10°C or below
$2,416 Vol.
2%
11°C
$1,756 Vol.
1%
12°C
$1,800 Vol.
11%
13°C
$1,662 Vol.
29%
14°C
$1,881 Vol.
41%
15°C
$1,369 Vol.
14%
16°C
$2,284 Vol.
4%
17°C
$1,921 Vol.
2%
18°C
$1,384 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,744 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$1,164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, as referenced in market analysis, center Warsaw's highest temperature on April 4 at around 13.5–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, driving trader-implied probabilities of 38.5% for 14°C and 28.5% for 13°C. This positioning reflects IMGW's recent weekly outlook (issued March 30) highlighting cool, stable spring conditions across Poland with average early-April highs near 13°C climatologically, ahead of potential Easter warming post-April 5. Model spreads of ±2°C account for uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) via Wunderground set to resolve the market; watch IMGW updates through midday April 4 for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
音量
$19,352終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, as referenced in market analysis, center Warsaw's highest temperature on April 4 at around 13.5–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, driving trader-implied probabilities of 38.5% for 14°C and 28.5% for 13°C. This positioning reflects IMGW's recent weekly outlook (issued March 30) highlighting cool, stable spring conditions across Poland with average early-April highs near 13°C climatologically, ahead of potential Easter warming post-April 5. Model spreads of ±2°C account for uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) via Wunderground set to resolve the market; watch IMGW updates through midday April 4 for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$19,352終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETThe latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, as referenced in market analysis, center Warsaw's highest temperature on April 4 at around 13.5–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, driving trader-implied probabilities of 38.5% for 14°C and 28.5% for 13°C. This positioning reflects IMGW's recent weekly outlook (issued March 30) highlighting cool, stable spring conditions across Poland with average early-April highs near 13°C climatologically, ahead of potential Easter warming post-April 5. Model spreads of ±2°C account for uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) via Wunderground set to resolve the market; watch IMGW updates through midday April 4 for refinements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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