Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW-PIB projections and hourly data from monitoring services, position Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3 at around 13°C, driving the 72% market-implied probability amid persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds limiting daytime heating. Morning observations show temperatures near 4°C under thick cloud cover, with peaks expected mid-afternoon at 56°F (13°C) before evening drizzle sets in. This trader consensus reflects reduced insolation from a passing frontal system, aligning with early April climatology where highs average 12–14°C; 25% odds on 14°C account for potential partial clearing, while higher outcomes remain unlikely given model spreads and current trajectory. Afternoon updates from official stations will refine resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
14°C 94%
15°C 5.1%
16°C <1%
17°C or higher <1%
$70,778 Vol.
$70,778 Vol.
2026/04/03
13°C
<1%
14°C
94%
15°C
5%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
14°C 94%
15°C 5.1%
16°C <1%
17°C or higher <1%
$70,778 Vol.
$70,778 Vol.
2026/04/03
13°C
$33,697 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$5,229 Vol.
94%
15°C
$4,340 Vol.
5%
16°C
$4,937 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$4,713 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW-PIB projections and hourly data from monitoring services, position Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3 at around 13°C, driving the 72% market-implied probability amid persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds limiting daytime heating. Morning observations show temperatures near 4°C under thick cloud cover, with peaks expected mid-afternoon at 56°F (13°C) before evening drizzle sets in. This trader consensus reflects reduced insolation from a passing frontal system, aligning with early April climatology where highs average 12–14°C; 25% odds on 14°C account for potential partial clearing, while higher outcomes remain unlikely given model spreads and current trajectory. Afternoon updates from official stations will refine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$70,778終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW-PIB projections and hourly data from monitoring services, position Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3 at around 13°C, driving the 72% market-implied probability amid persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds limiting daytime heating. Morning observations show temperatures near 4°C under thick cloud cover, with peaks expected mid-afternoon at 56°F (13°C) before evening drizzle sets in. This trader consensus reflects reduced insolation from a passing frontal system, aligning with early April climatology where highs average 12–14°C; 25% odds on 14°C account for potential partial clearing, while higher outcomes remain unlikely given model spreads and current trajectory. Afternoon updates from official stations will refine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$70,778終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETLatest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW-PIB projections and hourly data from monitoring services, position Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3 at around 13°C, driving the 72% market-implied probability amid persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds limiting daytime heating. Morning observations show temperatures near 4°C under thick cloud cover, with peaks expected mid-afternoon at 56°F (13°C) before evening drizzle sets in. This trader consensus reflects reduced insolation from a passing frontal system, aligning with early April climatology where highs average 12–14°C; 25% odds on 14°C account for potential partial clearing, while higher outcomes remain unlikely given model spreads and current trajectory. Afternoon updates from official stations will refine resolution.
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