Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 8, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities across 10–18°C outcomes driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs showing variable cloud cover and airflow over the Marmara region. Recent MGM observations indicate persistent cool conditions, with April 4 highs near 13°C amid showers and northerly winds channeling Black Sea air, aligning with early-April climatology where averages hover around 14–16°C but daily variability reaches ±4°C due to sea breezes and frontal passages. Lower outcomes (10–13°C) gain edge if low-pressure trough lingers, while upper end (16–18°C) requires high-pressure ridging; extremes below 9°C or above 19°C face climatological barriers. Watch daily MGM and NOAA updates at Istanbul Airport for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月8日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
4月8日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
14℃ 20%
13°C 20%
12°C 18%
15°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/04/08
9°C以下
5%
10℃
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
18%
13°C
20%
14℃
20%
15°C
18%
16℃
17%
17℃
15%
18°C
10%
19°C以上
10%
14℃ 20%
13°C 20%
12°C 18%
15°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/04/08
9°C以下
$215 Vol.
5%
10℃
$0 Vol.
17%
11°C
$0 Vol.
17%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14℃
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16℃
$0 Vol.
17%
17℃
$0 Vol.
15%
18°C
$6 Vol.
10%
19°C以上
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 8, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities across 10–18°C outcomes driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs showing variable cloud cover and airflow over the Marmara region. Recent MGM observations indicate persistent cool conditions, with April 4 highs near 13°C amid showers and northerly winds channeling Black Sea air, aligning with early-April climatology where averages hover around 14–16°C but daily variability reaches ±4°C due to sea breezes and frontal passages. Lower outcomes (10–13°C) gain edge if low-pressure trough lingers, while upper end (16–18°C) requires high-pressure ridging; extremes below 9°C or above 19°C face climatological barriers. Watch daily MGM and NOAA updates at Istanbul Airport for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
音量
$221終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 8, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities across 10–18°C outcomes driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs showing variable cloud cover and airflow over the Marmara region. Recent MGM observations indicate persistent cool conditions, with April 4 highs near 13°C amid showers and northerly winds channeling Black Sea air, aligning with early-April climatology where averages hover around 14–16°C but daily variability reaches ±4°C due to sea breezes and frontal passages. Lower outcomes (10–13°C) gain edge if low-pressure trough lingers, while upper end (16–18°C) requires high-pressure ridging; extremes below 9°C or above 19°C face climatological barriers. Watch daily MGM and NOAA updates at Istanbul Airport for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$221終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 8, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities across 10–18°C outcomes driven by ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs showing variable cloud cover and airflow over the Marmara region. Recent MGM observations indicate persistent cool conditions, with April 4 highs near 13°C amid showers and northerly winds channeling Black Sea air, aligning with early-April climatology where averages hover around 14–16°C but daily variability reaches ±4°C due to sea breezes and frontal passages. Lower outcomes (10–13°C) gain edge if low-pressure trough lingers, while upper end (16–18°C) requires high-pressure ridging; extremes below 9°C or above 19°C face climatological barriers. Watch daily MGM and NOAA updates at Istanbul Airport for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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