Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow spread for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 around 13–15°C (implied probabilities 18.5–22.5%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing model means near 14°C under persistent northerly airflow from the Black Sea, which caps warming via cool maritime advection. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—thicker overcast in GFS runs suppresses insolation to favor 13–14°C, while ECMWF's thinner clouds allow brief solar heating toward 15°C—against early-April climatology averaging 14°C maxima. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) aligns with partly cloudy conditions and light precipitation risk; daily model updates through April 4 will refine this short-range uncertainty before official observations resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
13°C 30%
14°C 23%
15°C 22%
12°C 21%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
10°C or below
2%
11°C
7%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
23%
15°C
22%
16°C
10%
17°C
9%
18°C
5%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
2%
13°C 30%
14°C 23%
15°C 22%
12°C 21%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
10°C or below
$129 Vol.
2%
11°C
$61 Vol.
7%
12°C
$105 Vol.
21%
13°C
$118 Vol.
21%
14°C
$45 Vol.
23%
15°C
$187 Vol.
22%
16°C
$101 Vol.
10%
17°C
$89 Vol.
9%
18°C
$58 Vol.
5%
19°C
$135 Vol.
3%
20°C or higher
$423 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow spread for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 around 13–15°C (implied probabilities 18.5–22.5%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing model means near 14°C under persistent northerly airflow from the Black Sea, which caps warming via cool maritime advection. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—thicker overcast in GFS runs suppresses insolation to favor 13–14°C, while ECMWF's thinner clouds allow brief solar heating toward 15°C—against early-April climatology averaging 14°C maxima. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) aligns with partly cloudy conditions and light precipitation risk; daily model updates through April 4 will refine this short-range uncertainty before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
音量
$1,451終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow spread for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 around 13–15°C (implied probabilities 18.5–22.5%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing model means near 14°C under persistent northerly airflow from the Black Sea, which caps warming via cool maritime advection. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—thicker overcast in GFS runs suppresses insolation to favor 13–14°C, while ECMWF's thinner clouds allow brief solar heating toward 15°C—against early-April climatology averaging 14°C maxima. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) aligns with partly cloudy conditions and light precipitation risk; daily model updates through April 4 will refine this short-range uncertainty before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,451終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow spread for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 around 13–15°C (implied probabilities 18.5–22.5%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing model means near 14°C under persistent northerly airflow from the Black Sea, which caps warming via cool maritime advection. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—thicker overcast in GFS runs suppresses insolation to favor 13–14°C, while ECMWF's thinner clouds allow brief solar heating toward 15°C—against early-April climatology averaging 14°C maxima. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) aligns with partly cloudy conditions and light precipitation risk; daily model updates through April 4 will refine this short-range uncertainty before official observations resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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