Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 6 clustering around 15-16°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds from the Black Sea, driving trader consensus with implied probabilities of 31.5% for 15°C and 28.5% for 16°C. Early April climatology averages highs near 15°C, with current synoptic patterns featuring a weak upper trough introducing low-level moisture that caps warming potential and differentiates lower outcomes like 14°C (21.5%) from slightly higher ones via variable cloud cover and boundary layer stability. Genuine uncertainty persists in model spread (14-17°C range) due to divergent guidance on afternoon insolation; watch Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and ECMWF 00z/12z runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月6日のイスタンブールの最高気温は?
4月6日のイスタンブールの最高気温は?
15°C 32%
16°C 29%
14℃ 21%
17℃ 19%
11°C以下
1%
12℃
1%
13°C
10%
14℃
21%
15°C
32%
16°C
29%
17℃
19%
18°C
14%
19°C
7%
20℃
1%
21℃以上
5%
15°C 32%
16°C 29%
14℃ 21%
17℃ 19%
11°C以下
1%
12℃
1%
13°C
10%
14℃
21%
15°C
32%
16°C
29%
17℃
19%
18°C
14%
19°C
7%
20℃
1%
21℃以上
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 6 clustering around 15-16°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds from the Black Sea, driving trader consensus with implied probabilities of 31.5% for 15°C and 28.5% for 16°C. Early April climatology averages highs near 15°C, with current synoptic patterns featuring a weak upper trough introducing low-level moisture that caps warming potential and differentiates lower outcomes like 14°C (21.5%) from slightly higher ones via variable cloud cover and boundary layer stability. Genuine uncertainty persists in model spread (14-17°C range) due to divergent guidance on afternoon insolation; watch Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and ECMWF 00z/12z runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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