Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 at 10–13°C, driving trader consensus with 12°C (35.5% implied probability) and 13°C (25.5%) leading outcomes amid persistent cloud cover and light showers carrying over from April 3's midday peak of ~14°C. Cool air mass over the Marmara region, combined with overcast skies limiting solar heating, positions these as frontrunners against early April climatological averages of ~15°C. Higher probabilities for 14–15°C reflect model spread and potential clearing, while extremes remain unlikely. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates and final NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport will refine trajectories before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?
12°C 37%
13°C 26%
14°C 11%
15°C 11%
$11,068 Vol.
$11,068 Vol.
2026/04/04
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
8%
12°C
37%
13°C
26%
14°C
11%
15°C
11%
16°C or higher
5%
12°C 37%
13°C 26%
14°C 11%
15°C 11%
$11,068 Vol.
$11,068 Vol.
2026/04/04
6°C or below
$1,644 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$888 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$979 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,457 Vol.
1%
10°C
$903 Vol.
2%
11°C
$1,112 Vol.
8%
12°C
$622 Vol.
37%
13°C
$588 Vol.
26%
14°C
$631 Vol.
11%
15°C
$926 Vol.
11%
16°C or higher
$1,319 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 at 10–13°C, driving trader consensus with 12°C (35.5% implied probability) and 13°C (25.5%) leading outcomes amid persistent cloud cover and light showers carrying over from April 3's midday peak of ~14°C. Cool air mass over the Marmara region, combined with overcast skies limiting solar heating, positions these as frontrunners against early April climatological averages of ~15°C. Higher probabilities for 14–15°C reflect model spread and potential clearing, while extremes remain unlikely. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates and final NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport will refine trajectories before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
音量
$11,068終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 at 10–13°C, driving trader consensus with 12°C (35.5% implied probability) and 13°C (25.5%) leading outcomes amid persistent cloud cover and light showers carrying over from April 3's midday peak of ~14°C. Cool air mass over the Marmara region, combined with overcast skies limiting solar heating, positions these as frontrunners against early April climatological averages of ~15°C. Higher probabilities for 14–15°C reflect model spread and potential clearing, while extremes remain unlikely. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates and final NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport will refine trajectories before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$11,068終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 at 10–13°C, driving trader consensus with 12°C (35.5% implied probability) and 13°C (25.5%) leading outcomes amid persistent cloud cover and light showers carrying over from April 3's midday peak of ~14°C. Cool air mass over the Marmara region, combined with overcast skies limiting solar heating, positions these as frontrunners against early April climatological averages of ~15°C. Higher probabilities for 14–15°C reflect model spread and potential clearing, while extremes remain unlikely. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates and final NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport will refine trajectories before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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