Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 66.5% implied probability to a San Francisco high temperature of 78°F or higher on April 4, driven by National Weather Service forecasts indicating persistent high-pressure ridging over California that promotes subsidence warming, clear skies, and reduced marine layer influence along the coast. This setup follows March 2026's record temperature anomalies—the warmest on record for the Bay Area—and a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, with models like NOAA's GFS ensembles converging on afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s amid light winds. Historical April averages hover near 64°F, underscoring the unusual heat potential, though uncertainty remains from possible delayed sea breeze development; watch NWS updates this afternoon for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?
78°F or higher 68%
76-77°F 17%
74-75°F 8%
72-73°F 3.5%
$17,698 Vol.
$17,698 Vol.
2026/04/04
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
17%
78°F or higher
68%
78°F or higher 68%
76-77°F 17%
74-75°F 8%
72-73°F 3.5%
$17,698 Vol.
$17,698 Vol.
2026/04/04
59°F or below
$2,464 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,318 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,457 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$777 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$758 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$2,077 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$2,544 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$1,256 Vol.
4%
74-75°F
$1,722 Vol.
8%
76-77°F
$1,373 Vol.
17%
78°F or higher
$1,987 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 66.5% implied probability to a San Francisco high temperature of 78°F or higher on April 4, driven by National Weather Service forecasts indicating persistent high-pressure ridging over California that promotes subsidence warming, clear skies, and reduced marine layer influence along the coast. This setup follows March 2026's record temperature anomalies—the warmest on record for the Bay Area—and a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, with models like NOAA's GFS ensembles converging on afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s amid light winds. Historical April averages hover near 64°F, underscoring the unusual heat potential, though uncertainty remains from possible delayed sea breeze development; watch NWS updates this afternoon for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$17,698終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:44 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 66.5% implied probability to a San Francisco high temperature of 78°F or higher on April 4, driven by National Weather Service forecasts indicating persistent high-pressure ridging over California that promotes subsidence warming, clear skies, and reduced marine layer influence along the coast. This setup follows March 2026's record temperature anomalies—the warmest on record for the Bay Area—and a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, with models like NOAA's GFS ensembles converging on afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s amid light winds. Historical April averages hover near 64°F, underscoring the unusual heat potential, though uncertainty remains from possible delayed sea breeze development; watch NWS updates this afternoon for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$17,698終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:44 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 66.5% implied probability to a San Francisco high temperature of 78°F or higher on April 4, driven by National Weather Service forecasts indicating persistent high-pressure ridging over California that promotes subsidence warming, clear skies, and reduced marine layer influence along the coast. This setup follows March 2026's record temperature anomalies—the warmest on record for the Bay Area—and a sharp warming trend over the past 48 hours, with models like NOAA's GFS ensembles converging on afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s amid light winds. Historical April averages hover near 64°F, underscoring the unusual heat potential, though uncertainty remains from possible delayed sea breeze development; watch NWS updates this afternoon for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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