Latest National Weather Service guidance and consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensemble models project New York City's high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 5 around 63-67°F, driving the 66.5% market-implied probability for "67°F or below" as traders weigh mild but capped warming under a post-frontal upper-level pattern with lingering onshore flow and cloud cover. Recent cooler anomalies in early April, including backdoor cold fronts pushing highs into the 40s-50s on April 2, reinforce this positioning against seasonal normals of mid-50s°F. While some ensemble members hint at 68-69°F if skies clear, inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists; monitor overnight model runs and tomorrow's NWS updates for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in NYC on April 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 5?
67°F or below 67%
68-69°F 19%
70-71°F 8%
72-73°F 4.6%
新規
$15,118 Vol.
新規
$15,118 Vol.
2026/04/05
67°F or below
67%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
67°F or below 67%
68-69°F 19%
70-71°F 8%
72-73°F 4.6%
新規
$15,118 Vol.
新規
$15,118 Vol.
2026/04/05
67°F or below
$1,995 Vol.
67%
68-69°F
$1,631 Vol.
19%
70-71°F
$1,117 Vol.
8%
72-73°F
$871 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$1,013 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$1,795 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$1,821 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$1,357 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$911 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,342 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$1,265 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensemble models project New York City's high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 5 around 63-67°F, driving the 66.5% market-implied probability for "67°F or below" as traders weigh mild but capped warming under a post-frontal upper-level pattern with lingering onshore flow and cloud cover. Recent cooler anomalies in early April, including backdoor cold fronts pushing highs into the 40s-50s on April 2, reinforce this positioning against seasonal normals of mid-50s°F. While some ensemble members hint at 68-69°F if skies clear, inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists; monitor overnight model runs and tomorrow's NWS updates for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
音量
$15,118終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensemble models project New York City's high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 5 around 63-67°F, driving the 66.5% market-implied probability for "67°F or below" as traders weigh mild but capped warming under a post-frontal upper-level pattern with lingering onshore flow and cloud cover. Recent cooler anomalies in early April, including backdoor cold fronts pushing highs into the 40s-50s on April 2, reinforce this positioning against seasonal normals of mid-50s°F. While some ensemble members hint at 68-69°F if skies clear, inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists; monitor overnight model runs and tomorrow's NWS updates for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$15,118終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETLatest National Weather Service guidance and consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensemble models project New York City's high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 5 around 63-67°F, driving the 66.5% market-implied probability for "67°F or below" as traders weigh mild but capped warming under a post-frontal upper-level pattern with lingering onshore flow and cloud cover. Recent cooler anomalies in early April, including backdoor cold fronts pushing highs into the 40s-50s on April 2, reinforce this positioning against seasonal normals of mid-50s°F. While some ensemble members hint at 68-69°F if skies clear, inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists; monitor overnight model runs and tomorrow's NWS updates for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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